Abstract: Using data from 2010 census, this paper constructs a discrete development model and predicts the age and gender structure of never married population from 2010 to 2060 separately for China's urban and rural areas. Spousal sex ratio index of marriage is used to measure the marriage squeeze of never-married men, and this study also decomposes the impacts of age structure, gender structure and spouse age differences on marriage squeeze by urban and rural areas. The results show that, from 2010 to 2060, the urban-rural difference in marriage squeeze of never-married men shows a fluctuating trend. The urban-rural gap will drop gradually till 2025, then rise steadily to 2050 and start to drop again. The urban-rural difference in gender structure contributes largely to the urban-rural disparity in marriage squeeze of never-married men. The implementation of the universal two-child policy might alleviate the marriage squeeze, while ruralurban migration exacerbates the rural-urban disparities in marriage squeeze. The government should take necessary measures as soon as possible to improve the effect of the universal two-child policy and pay attention to the influence of rural-urban migration on the marriage squeeze of rural men.

Keywords: Marriage Squeeze, Rural-urban Migration, Urban and Rural Gap, The Universal Two-child Policy

摘要： 文章构建分城乡离散型未婚人口发展方程，以2010年全国人口普查数据为基础，预测2011~2060年分城乡未婚人口的年龄性别结构，利用婚配性别比测度2010~2060年城乡大龄未婚男性婚姻挤压强度，分解未婚人口年龄结构、性别结构和夫妇年龄差婚配模式城乡差异对未婚男性婚姻挤压城乡差异的不同影响。结果发现，2010~2060年中国大龄未婚男性婚姻挤压城乡差异呈现“先降后升再降”的波动变化趋势，未婚人口性别结构城乡差异对未婚男性婚姻挤压城乡差异的影响较大。全面两孩政策的实施有利于缓解城乡未婚男性婚姻挤压；乡—城人口转移加剧未婚男性婚姻挤压的城乡差异。建议政府尽快做好配套措施提高全面两孩政策效果，高度重视乡—城人口转移对农村男性婚姻挤压的影响。

关键词: 婚姻挤压, 乡—城转移, 城乡差异, 全面两孩