Abstract:

Using data from the Chongqing subsample of 2017 China National Fertility Survey, this paper examines fertility trends in Chongqing from 2006 to 2016. There are considerable fluctuations in total fertility rate (TFR) in Chongqing, with an average of 1.61. In 2007, 2012 and 2016, the TFRs exceed 1.8, reaching 1.896, 1.853 and 1.891 respectively. On average, the TFR based on parity progression ratio during the past 11 years is 1.83 and the second child TFR based on parity progression ratio stands around 0.76. Under the universal twochild policy, about 38.1% of women, driven by many factors, still want to have fewer than two children. There is a gap between the ideal number of children and the children born by women in Chongqing. Attentions need to be paid to the endogenous low fertility patterns. Childbearing and childrearing costs are one of the major factors affecting womens fertility. A more fertilityfriendly society and better fertility environment will help raise fertility rate.

Keywords: Fertility Policy, Total Fertility Rate, Parity Progression Ratio, Fertility Intentions, Childbearing Costs

摘要： 文章使用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据的重庆样本，分析了重庆市2006~2016年间的生育水平，研究发现这11年间重庆市总和生育率有升有降，2007、2012和2016年超过1.8，分别为1.896、1.853和1.891，平均为1.61。相比较，11年间重庆市递进总和生育率平均值为1.83，2006~2016年间，重庆市二孩递进总和生育率平均值为0.76。文章分析了生育意愿，调查发现尽管全面两孩政策的后期效果可能会持续显现，但受多因素影响，仍有38.1%的女性打算生育孩子数少于2个，重庆市女性在生育孩子数量方面存在理想和现实的距离，内生性低生育趋势仍值得警惕。抚养成本依然是影响女性生育的主要因素。加快推进生育友好型社会建设，创建良好的生育环境，有助于完善生育服务，提升生育水平。

关键词: 生育政策, 总和生育率, 递进生育率, 生育意愿, 生育成本