Abstract: Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey data, this paper analyzes fertility levels and trends over 2006-2016 in the ethnic minority provinces in China, using period and cohort measures of fertility incorporating quantity, structure and timing dimensions. The results show that the total fertility rate of ethnic minority provinces has increased to the replacement level in the past ten years, which is higher than the national average. The fertility rate of ethnic minority population is higher than that of the Han nationality, and this is the case at all parities. The secondchild fertility of Han has increased tremendously, highlighting the marked effects of the twochild policy. By ethnic group, the Uygur and Miao have strong fertility behaviors, meanwhile the Yi tends to have two children, while the Tibetans are reluctant to have more children. The fertility peak of ethnic minorities and Han women of childbearing age has been postponed from 20-24 years to 25-29 years, and the fertility level at the older age group of Han nationality has increased, pushing up the mean age at childbearing with that being higher of Han nationality than that of ethnic minorities. Overall, the ethnic minority provinces are at a moderately high fertility level.

Keywords: Ethnic Minority Provinces, Total Fertility Rate, Lifetime Fertility Rate, Fertility Pattern

摘要： 文章使用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查中的少数民族省区数据，运用时期和队列指标，从数量、结构和时间3个维度来分析2006~2016年少数民族省区的生育水平。结果表明，少数民族省区总和生育率10年间趋势性上升，已然回到更替水平，高于全国平均值。其中，少数民族妇女生育率水平高于汉族；分孩次分析，少数民族妇女各孩次生育率水平均高于汉族，汉族二孩总和生育率上升明显，生育政策效果凸显；分民族分析，维吾尔族和苗族生育行为强劲，彝族倾向生育两个孩子，藏族生育冲动相对较弱；少数民族和汉族妇女生育高峰段均从20~24岁推迟至25~29岁，汉族高龄育龄妇女生育水平升高明显，生育年龄逐步提高，汉族生育年龄迟于少数民族。总体判断，少数民族省区处于适度的生育率水平。

关键词: 少数民族省区, 总和生育率, 终身生育率, 生育模式