Table of Content

29 January 2019, Volume 43 Issue 1

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Recent Levels and Trends of Fertility in China

Chen Wei，Duan Yuanyuan

2019, 43(1):  3-17. 

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Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey data, this paper evaluates China's fertility levels and trends in the decade preceding the survey by adopting and comparing multiple fertility measures, including total fertility rate (TFR), parity progressionbased total fertility rate (PPTFR), intrinsic total fertility rate (ITFR) and lifetime fertility rate (LFR). The results show that the average of TFR, PPTFR and ITFR over the past decade in China stands at around 1.65, 1.67 and 1.74 respectively. PPTFR and ITFR provide increasingly better estimations of the actual fertility by controlling the tempo effects in TFR. The lifetime fertility rate of cohort aged 35 and above is over 1.6 and increasing with age. Based on the multiple estimations, our main conclusion is that Chinas recent fertility level is above 1.6, and the implementation of the twochild policy has significantly increased the fertility level. Reduction in the TFR for first birth is largely driven by the tempo effect of delayed age at marriage and birth, while the marked increase in the TFR for second birth reflects the birthbunching effect due to the newly implemented two-child policy.


An Assessment of Mortality and Life Expectancy for Chinas Provinces: Based on the 2010 Provincial Census Data

Yang Mingxu,Lu Bei

2019, 43(1):  18-35. 

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Province-level mortality rates provide better indicators to describe the mortality pattern and its geographical differences than national level data. However, the limited data availability has made it hard to conduct research on provincelevel mortality and life expectancy. This paper employs ageand genderspecific mortality data, categorized by residential status (urban/rural), from the 6th Census. In its analysis, the paper uses China National Maternal and Child Health Surveillance System (MCHS) data to modify the Under 5 Mortality Rate (U5MR); applies Kannisto model to revise the mortality data of the oldest old people; and revised the mortality data for the elderly based on the comparison with Japans historical data from 1960 to 2010. In doing so, we are able to calculate life expectancy categorized by province, gender, and residential status, providing five mortality patterns according to longevity and urbanrural divide. The results show that in 2010, life expectancies at birth, 60 and 80 were 74.85, 19.44 and 6.90 respectively and that the variance of life expectancy in rural areas was bigger than that in urban areas.

“Double Penalty of Gender and Motherhood” and Female Labor Force Participation

Yang Juhua

2019, 43(1):  36-51. 

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This paper attempts to investigate the relationship between the double taxes, “gender tax” and “motherhood tax”, and female labor force participation among the population aged 18-39 in the Chinese context. Analytical results indicate that the interplay of gender, marriage and childbearing bears significant impacts on these measures of work. Controlling for multiple measures of human capital and devotion to work, male and female, unmarried and married, and father and mother all differ in these regards such that females are more disadvantaged than males, and mothers are more vulnerable than women without children and all males. But the mechanisms of gender effect vary by measurements of labor market participation, and by womens life course. Whether or not in the labor market is largely affected by gender per se and marital status, while work stability by marriage and childbirth, and wage by gender and childbirth. Such findings support the “doubletaxes” conceptual framework. With the relaxation of fertility policy, more women will have more than one child, which will render them to be in further disadvantaged positions in the labor market, which presents greater challenges for the government in reducing the negative effect of “double taxes” on female labor force participation.

The Effect of Housing Price on Family Fertility Decision in China  

Ge Yuhao，Zhang Xuemei

2019, 43(1):  52-63. 

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This paper examines the effect of housing price on family fertility decision based on the data of 2014 China Family Panel Studies. We chose housing prices at the time of marriage and the time of five years after marriage as the variables influencing the decisions to have the first child and the second child respectively. We also discuss the mechanisms through which housing price affects fertility decisions by comparing families only having one house and those having two and more houses. Three main results are found in this paper. First, housing price has a significant negative effect on the probability of having children. The probability of having the first and the second child would decrease by 1.8% to 2.9% and 2.4% to 8.8% if housing price increases one thousand yuan. Second, housing price postpones the age of females to have the first child. The age at first birth would increase by 0.14 to 0.26 years if housing price increases one thousand yuan. Third, there are two theoretical mechanisms explaining the effect of housing price on fertility decision, namely wealth mechanism and crowding mechanism. In reality, the degree of influence from the crowding mechanism is much bigger than that of the wealth mechanism. The results of this paper imply that decline of fertility rate in recent years is related to the rapid increase of housing price and government need to restrain the irrational increase of housing price.

Husbands' Housework Share and Women's Hazards of Entering Parenthood

Zhao Menghan，Ji Yingchun

2019, 43(1):  64-77. 

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Previous Chinese literature on women’s hazards of giving births focused on the impacts of policies or marital and childbearing histories. Under low fertility regime, gender and intergenerational relations rather than policy interventions exert more influence on Chinese women’s childbearing behaviors. Under the framework of New Home Economics and gender equity theory, and gender and development approach regarding fertility, this study discusses about how Chinese women’s economic activities and changes in gender relations might affect women’s hazards of entering parenthood. Capitalizing on data from a longitudinal survey, this article uses event history analysis to test how housework division and wives’ economic activities influence the hazards of giving first births. The results suggest that women earning higher income tend to have lower hazards of giving first births. Coresiding with women’s mothers-in-law increases the hazards of entering parenthood. Also, husbands’ greater involvement in housework is related to higher hazards of giving first births, and this relationship is stronger in households that can hardly get help from womens mothers-in-law.


The Influence of Population Ageing on Investment Risk Preference：An Old-Age Security Perspective

Qi Mingzhu，Zhang Chenggong

2019, 43(1):  78-90. 

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With population aging, there is a decline of retirees' dependence on pension and their children, while the accumulation of assets and the return of assets during the work period become more important for their future pension security. Investment products at different risks have various capital return rates. Residents' investment risk preference will directly decide residents’ investment behavior preferences and portfolio demand, and therefore affect the returns of asset in the future. Using the survey data of 2011 Chinese Household Finance Survey, this paper empirically analyses the influence of age on the risk preference of residents by establishing a series of ordered logistic regression models. The results show that the investment risk preference during different life cycles is different, and the risk preference of the residents gradually decreases with age. Population ageing will reduce the overall investment risk preference and develop a low return rate through adjusting the supply and demand of the future investment market. Finally, this paper discusses policy implications.


The Vulnerability Assessment of Family Support for the  Elderly  in Rural China: An Empirical Study Based on Data from Anhui

Xu Jie，Li Shuzhuo，Wu Zheng，Liu Wei

2019, 43(1):  91-101. 

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This paper uses data from the survey of “Wellbeing of Elderly in Anhui Province, China” conducted by the Institute for Population and Development of Xi'an Jiaotong University. Based on the “exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity” analysis framework of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a comprehensive index assessment model, the study builds an assessment index system and an assessment model for the vulnerability of rural elderly family, which are based on the exposure level, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of elderly rural family. The Vulnerability Index is used to measure the vulnerability of rural elderly family, and the types of vulnerability indexes and their dimensional differences are discussed. The results show that the vulnerability of old-age support systems of rural elderly family maintained a high level; 51.81% of respondents are belonged to high-and mediumlevel vulnerable families. Rural elderly living in the high-level vulnerable families have the characteristics of seniority, low education level, low ability of ADLs, and low family income. The characteristics of mediumlevel vulnerable rural elderly families are similar to those of highlevel vulnerable families. The levels of exposure and sensitivity of rural elderly families with widowed elders, having daughters only or do not live with children and grandchildren are high.


Adjustment on Retirement Age and Changes of Human Capital in China, 2015 to 2050

Yeung WeiJun Jean，Feng Qiushi，Wang Zhenglian，Zeng Yi

2019, 43(1):  102-112. 

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As China continues to age rapidly, whether the country should adjust the official retirement age, and if so, when and how, are currently major policy concerns. We examine the impact of postponing the retirement age on the human capital of China in the next four decades. Two critical aspects of human capital-health and education-are incorporated to account for the quality of the work force. Our projections reveal the impact of nine scenarios on the Chinese labor force in the next few decades, highlighting the changes in “the high human capital workforce”-those with good health and education. We show substantial impact with added work force ranging from 28 to 92 million per year depending on which scenarios are implemented. Furthermore, the retained workers are increasingly better educated. The gain in female workers is particularly significant, reaping the benefits of the education expansion since the 1990s.