Table of Content

29 November 2018, Volume 42 Issue 6

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The Economic Miracle and Demographic Dividend in China since Reform and Opening-Up

Yuan Xin, Gao Yuan

2018, 42(6):  3-14. 

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At the historical juncture of 40 years since the Reform and Opening-up, we review the positive impacts of demographic dividend on Chinas economic miracle. Firstly, the rapid demographic transition leads to the large-scale and growing labor force, contributing to the demographic window of opportunity. It has been further reinforced by the superimposed human capital accumulated by rapid socioeconomic development. Secondly, under the guidance of Reform and Opening-up strategy, various economic and social policies built on the basic national conditions are gradually explored, guaranteeing the harvest of demographic dividend. These policies include allowing the free flow of labor, developing labor-intensive industries, reforming the system of employment and entrepreneurship, promoting equal labor opportunity for men and women, carrying out the healthy China initiative, implementing the strategy for invigorating China through science-education. Thirdly, the peaceful international environment and the globalization process have paved the way for economic development. Overall, with the combination and matching of a series of internal reform and opening to the outside world, China has become a model country harvesting the demographic dividend and creating an economic miracle.


40 Years of Chinese Urbanization: Key Findings and Future Options

Li Tongping

2018, 42(6):  15-24. 

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During the past 40 years of Chinas reform and opening-up, the percentage of population residing in urban areas has increased by over 40 percent, from a level at half of the world average in 1978 to 3-percentage points higher than the world average in 2017. Based on the related data and perspectives such as the Marxism urbanization theories, we review key findings and primary experiences of Chinas urbanization process. The 40 years urbanization in China is a human historical miracle with a rapid rate, which roughly coincides with the law of urbanization. Future urbanization strategy should aim at fulfilling peoples good life wishes and stand on the three basic points, i.e., urban society, risk society, and developing country. The Chinas future urbanization could be at a more stable and slower pace than before during a development period with an orientation of high quality. Attention should be paid to the risks and costs in future urbanization.


Trends in Inter-provincial Migration Distance in China

Gao Xiangdong

2018, 42(6):  25-34. 

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Since the reform and opening up, the scale of China's floating population has been increasing, and the proportion of inter-provincial migrants has been also increasing. Although there are many studies on Inter-provincial Migration of floating population, few focus on inter-provincial migration distance. Based on the 2000 and 2010 census data, this paper examines the migration distance per capita and differentials by province. The results show that the migration distance per capita in China kept increasing from 980.51 km in 2000 to 994.82 km in 2010. The provinces with higher migration distances are mainly located in the west, while the provinces with lower migration distances are mainly located in the east. There are gender differences in migration distances per capita, and females are more inclined to close migration. In 2010, the average migration distance of males was 1000.75 km, while that of females was 987.01 km. The gender differences in migration distances are shrinking. At the same time, the paper also discusses the influencing factors of Inter-provincial Migration of migrants from three aspects: economic factors, age structure and migration scale.


China Fertility Status Report, 2006-2016:An Analysis Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey

He Dan, Zhang Xuying,Zhuang Yaer,Wang Zhili and Yang Shenghui

2018, 42(6):  35-45. 

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Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey, this paper analyzes the national fertility level, fertility intentions, contraceptive use, and childbearing and parenting services. The results show that, from 2006 to 2016, the mean ages at first marriage and first birth increased by 2.7 and 2.6 years, respectively. The total fertility rate between 2006 and 2011 was between 1.60-1.70 and fluctuated between 2012 and 2016, peaking in the years of 2012 and 2016. Compared with the curves of age-specific fertility rate in 2006 and 2011, the one in 2016 shifted significantly to the right. Affected by the selective two-child policy and the universal two-child policy, the proportion of second parity has increased since 2012, while the trend is opposite for the proportion of first parity. Since 2011, the sex ratio at birth has declined slightly. For women at childbearing ages, the ideal number of children is 1.96, while the intended number of children is 1.75. The rate of contraceptive use of currently married women at childbearing ages is 84.7%. About 80.8% of children aged 3-5 are enrolled in the kindergarten, 34.9% are in public institutions and 65.1% in private institutions. The future trend of Chinese fertility is also discussed.


From Health Advantage to Health Disadvantage:The Epidemiological Paradox in Rural Migrants

Li Jianmin, Wang Ting and Sun Zhishuai

2018, 42(6):  46-60. 

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Using the data from CLDS, this paper analyzes the changing trend of health gap between rural migrants and urban residents as well as the mechanisms causing this trend in the process of rural-urban migration. By applying the Logit model and Fairlie non-linear decomposition method, we find that: (1) There is a health loss mechanism during the rural-urban migration process in according with the “epidemiological paradox”. A transition is observed from health advantage into health disadvantage for rural migrants comparing to urban residents, suggesting that rural-urban migration has a negative impact on the health conditions of rural migrants; (2) The health maintenance factor and the health loss factor are important reasons for the health gap between rural migrants and urban residents, while the health loss factor is more important. Variables such as living environment, individual income deprivation, workload, and living with spouse have great contribution to the health gap; (3) The changing trend of health conditions of male and female rural migrants is consistent with the whole sample. The relationship of the health conditions between male and female rural migrants is in line with the “gender paradox of health”, with differing factors affecting the health conditions of male and female rural migrants.


Relationship between Urban-Rural Income Gap and Urbanization#br#

Zhang Yaojun, Chai Duoduo

2018, 42(6):  61-73. 

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Population urbanization and urban-rural income gap affect each other. Based on prefecture-level data of urbanization rate and urban-rural income ratio in mainland China, we examine this mutual impact by conducting three econometric models, including ordinary multiple linear regression (OLS), simultaneous equation model (SEM) and spatial simultaneous equation model (SSEM). We suggest that spatial simultaneous equation model (SSEM) should be used because of the simultaneity and spatial autocorrelation between urbanization rate and urban-rural income gap. The regression results show that the urbanrural income ratio decreases when the local and surrounding areas are more urbanized. And high urban-rural income ratios in surrounding areas inhibit the urbanization process in the local area. Moreover, economic development and the promotion of human capital contribute to higher urbanization level and lower urban-rural income ratio. Based on these results, policy implications are discussed on how to narrow the urban-rural income gap at the broad spatial level and to increase human capital through educational development.


Behavioral Attitudes of the Elderly towards Social Care Services: The Case of Beijing

Wang Yongmei, Du Peng

2018, 42(6):  74-86. 

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The behavioral attitudes indicate a psychological tendency of an individual towards certain behaviors and can be used to predict actual behaviors. Under the theoretical framework of multi-dimensional human nature, this study examines how the behavioral attitudes of the aged determine their utilization of social care service by analyzing the data from six districts in Beijing. Behavioral attitudes of older persons towards social care service for the elderly consist of eight dimensions: the pursuit of an economical and practical life, the security of living and commuting, the ethic disorder of the elder care, the pressure of family care, the pursuit of spiritual effects, the identification of the elder care services, the trust on the services, and the effect of mental accounting. The low-income groups show the highest level of acceptance of social care services but also the lowest level of trust.Most of the elderly (i.e. those with secondary schooling) pay much attention to the spiritual effects of the services, while they are conservative about ethical culture of the elder care. The contingency of behavioral attitudes leads to the deviation between the utilization of services and the behavior intentions.


Happy Life Expectancy in China

Chen Wei, Duan Yuanyuan

2018, 42(6):  87-99. 

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Happiness is a universal pursuit of human societies. Measuring quality of life needs to combine objective conditions and subjective perceptions. The objective dimension has been largely established by measuring healthy life expectancy, while the subjective dimension is virtually absent. This research assesses the subjective component through a measure of happy life expectancy.While a lot of research have been done in many countries on measurement and analysis of healthy life expectancy over the past several decades, studies on happy life expectancy are only recent and rare.We did not find any research on happy life expectancy in China. This paper uses the CGSS data and life table method to produce estimates of happy life expectancy in China over 2005-2015. The results suggest there is “compression of unhappiness” or “expansion of happiness” in China over the period under study. We hold that the combination of healthy life expectancy and happy life expectancy can have a fuller and more comprehensive reflection on peoples quality of life.


The Impacts of Population Structure and Household Size on Residential Energy Consumption：Evidences Based on Provincial-level Panel Data

Shen Ke, Shi Qian

2018, 42(6):  100-110. 

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Drawing upon provincial data between 1995 and 2015 in China, this study presents the regional distributions and dynamic changes of residential energy consumption per capita, and also investigates the impacts of population structure and household size on residential energy consumption. Residential energy consumption per capita is on a rising trend across China, and the annual growth rates in Heilongjiang, Hainan, and Chongqing provinces between 2005 and 2015 top the list. Empirical analyses reveal that there is a U-shaped correlation between urbanization and residential energy consumption, and moreover, population aging and the shrinkage of household size lead to the increased energy consumption. In order to achieve the dual targets of combating climate change and meeting the rising demand for prosperous life, China should further promote energy reservation, and more importantly, improve the energy consumption structure and expand the utilization of clean energy.