Abstract:

Based on data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) conducted in the origin and destination in 2015, this paper compares the structural differences of the floating population under the two survey perspectives, with the mini-census in 2015 as the benchmark. The results suggest that the survey conducted in origin is closer to the results of the mini-census in age structure, marriage, and distance of movement. The survey conducted in destination is closer to the mini-census in terms of residence time. Women in the destination areas and short-term (1 year or less) migrants in the origin areas are over-sampled. Both surveys focus on the population of low education level while neglecting the population with college degree or above. From the perspective of survey methodology, recruiting different respondents is one of the most important sources of survey errors, especially measurement errors. In addition to coverage error, non-response error is also one of the important factors affecting the survey results and sample structures.

Keywords: Floating Population, Population Structure, Origin, Destination

摘要： 文章以2015年小普查数据为基准，比较了2015年流入地和流出地两种调查地点下流动人口监测调查数据反映的流动人口的结构性差异，并从调查方法论的角度，探讨了各种可能的调查误差对调查结果的影响。分析表明：流出地调查得到的年龄、婚姻和流动范围结构以及流入地调查得到的居住时间结构更接近小普查；流入地调查中的女性人口以及流出地调查中的短期流动人口和男性人口可能被过度抽样；两种调查都偏重于低受教育程度的流动人口，相对忽略了大专及以上的流动人口。从调查方法论角度看，不同的应答者是调查误差（特别是测量误差）的重要根源。除覆盖误差外，无应答误差也是影响调查结果的重要因素之一。文章建议重视样本的结构性偏差对分析结果的潜在影响，以正确地使用调查数据。

关键词: 流动人口, 人口结构, 流出地, 流入地