Population Research ›› 2021, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (3): 57-64.

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Declining Number of Births in China: A Decomposition Analysis

Chen Wei1,Liu Jinju2   

  1. Chen Wei1, Center for Population and Development Studies, Research Institute of Social Construction of Beijing, Renmin University of China; Liu Jinju 2(Corresponding Author), Department of Public Administration, Beijing City University.
  • Published:2021-05-29 Online:2021-05-29
  • About Author:Chen Wei is Professor, Center for Population and Development Studies, Research Institute of Social Construction of Beijing, Renmin University of China; Liu Jinju (Corresponding Author) is Associate Professor, Department of Public Administration, Beijing City University.

近年来中国出生人数下降及其影响因素

陈卫1,刘金菊2   

  1. 陈卫1，中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心、北京社会建设研究院；刘金菊2（通讯作者），北京城市学院公共管理学部。
  • 作者简介:陈卫，中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心、北京社会建设研究院教授；刘金菊（通讯作者），北京城市学院公共管理学部副教授。
  • 基金资助:
    本研究得到中国人民大学科学研究基金项目“中国的婚姻变迁：基于女性的初婚行为”（20XNL025）和国家社会科学基金一般项目“基于工作生命表估计的中国女性生育代价研究”（17BRK027）的支持。

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Abstract: Recent drastic changes in marriage and fertility behaviour had a considerable impact on China's number of births. A decomposition analysis demonstrates that all demographic factors are depressing birth numbers, including the size of reproductiveage women and its age structure, proportion married and marital fertility. The 7th Population Census suggests a more rapid decline in birth numbers.

Keywords: Birth Numbers, Reproductive-age Women, Proportion Married

摘要： 近年来中国人口的婚姻生育行为发生了明显变化，对出生人数变动产生重大影响。对中国近年来出生人数下降的分解表明，各种人口学因素都在促使出生人数下降。育龄妇女规模下降是出生人数下降的主导因素，而婚育年龄的加速推迟强化了出生人数的下降。第七次全国人口普查数据表明，中国的出生人数进入了更迅速的下降通道。

关键词: 出生人数, 育龄妇女, 已婚比例

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