Abstract: Drawing upon data from the baseline survey of China Family Panel Studies 2010, this paper analyzes the effect of educational attainment on divorce, and explores whether the effect of education has changed with the expansion of higher education. The results show that, for the cohorts born before 1960, the increase of women's education level significantly increased the risk of divorce, while the increase of men's education level did not increase the risk of divorce. The gender specific effect of education level on divorce changed for the 1980 and later birth cohorts, where the increased education level did not significantly increase the risk of divorce for women, while the increase of education level decreased the divorce risk for men. These results suggest that the impact of education level on intimate relationships such as divorce will change with the progress of social change.

Keywords: Divorce Risk, Educational Attainment, Social Change, Intimate Relationships, Gender Mechanism

摘要： 中国离婚率的不断走高持续吸引社会各界的广泛关注，然而关于离婚的研究却仍然存在可继续探讨的空间。结合受教育水平与亲密关系变迁的相关理论，分析受教育水平与离婚风险之间的关系是否会在高等教育大众化的发展进程中发生转变。研究发现，对于1960年以前的出生队列而言，女性受教育水平的增加会显著提升离婚风险，而男性受教育水平的增加不会提升离婚风险。教育水平对离婚风险影响的分性别作用机制在1980年及以后的出生队列中发生了改变，在1980年及以后的出生队列中，女性的受教育水平提高并不会显著提升其离婚风险，而男性受教育水平的提高则会降低其离婚风险。这一结果体现了受教育水平对离婚等亲密关系所产生的影响会在社会变迁的大背景下发生转变。

关键词: 离婚风险, 受教育水平, 社会变迁, 亲密关系, 性别机制