Population Research ›› 2023, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (2): 11-20.

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Negative Population Growth in China: Characteristics, Challenges, and Responses

Zhai Zhenwu1, Jin Guangzhao2   

  1. Zhai Zhenwu1, Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China; Jin Guangzhao2 (Corresponding Author) , School of Sociology and Population Studies, Renmin University of China
  • Online:2023-03-29 Published:2023-03-29
  • About author:Zhai Zhenwu is Professor, Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China; Jin Guangzhao (Corresponding Author) is PhD Candidate, School of Sociology and Population Studies, Renmin University of China.

中国人口负增长:特征、挑战与应对

翟振武1, 金光照2   

  1. 翟振武1,中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心;金光照2(通讯作者),中国人民大学社会与人口学院
  • 作者简介:翟振武,中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心教授;金光照(通讯作者),中国人民大学社会与人口学院博士研究生。
  • 基金资助:
    本研究得到国家社会科学基金专项项目新时代中国特色人口学基本理论问题研究” (19VXK07的支持

Abstract: China's negative population growth is an objective law of population development, with a unique transition process and development trend. In the future, long-term and rapid negative population growth may pose challenges to the economy. It is necessary to cope with negative population growth actively by establishing a fertility support policy system, improving population quality, optimizing the spatial layout of the population, raising per capita consumption, and enhancing labor productivity.

摘要: 人口负增长是人口发展的客观规律。中国人口由正增长转变为负增长的过程呈现出转折速度快、出门即低点、未发达先转负的特征,且中国未来的人口负增长将呈现出"持续时间长、发展速度快、缩减规模大、回弹难度大"的演变趋势。未来长期型、快速型人口负增长将给中国经济发展带来潜在风险和挑战,必须加快构建生育支持政策体系,持续提高人口质量,合理优化人口空间布局,有效激发消费增长活力,全面提升劳动生产率,主动积极应对人口负增长。 

关键词: 人口负增长, 生育水平, 政策应对

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