Abstract: In the context of intertwined challenges of low fertility and gender equality, clarifying the intra-household fertility decision-making mechanisms is of great significance. Drawing on data from the 2018 and 2022 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study adopts a couple-centered perspective and applies the Diagonal Reference Model to quantify the relative influence of husband's and wife's fertility preferences on actual fertility behavior, thereby uncovering the underlying gender power dynamics. The results indicate that family fertility behavior is highly contingent upon the consistency of both partners' intentions, with the concordance of spousal preferences exerting a significant impact on behavioral outcomes. In cases of discordance, the husband's fertility intention tends to predominate, reflecting his relatively dominant role in reproductive decision-making. Further analysis indicates that having a son, residing in an urban area, and a wife's higher educational attainment relative to her husband may enhance the wife's bargaining power to some extent, but they are insufficient to fundamentally alter the gender-based power structure deeply entrenched in patriarchal culture. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of family fertility decision-making mechanisms and offers insights for the formulation and optimization of fertility-supportive policies.

Keywords: Family Fertility Decision-Making, Spousal Bargaining, Fertility Intention, Diagonal Reference Model

摘要： 在低生育率与性别平等议题交织的背景下，厘清家庭内部生育决策机制具有重要意义。本文利用2018年和2022年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据，基于夫妻配对视角，采用对角参照模型识别夫妻各自生育意愿对家庭生育行为的相对影响，并揭示其中所体现的性别权力结构。结果显示，家庭生育行为高度依赖于夫妻生育意愿的一致性，夫妻偏好协同具有显著的行为转化效应；当夫妻生育意愿存在分歧时，丈夫的生育意愿更易主导家庭生育行为，凸显了丈夫在生育决策上的相对优势；进一步分析发现，育有男孩、在城市居住以及妻子学历高于丈夫虽在一定程度上增强了妻子的议价能力，但难以实质性改变深嵌于父权文化中的性别权力结构。本研究拓展了对家庭生育决策机制的理解，并为优化生育支持政策提供了参考。

关键词: 家庭生育决策, 夫妻议价, 生育意愿, 对角参照模型