Abstract: Amid the intensifying structural challenges of low fertility and population aging in China, conventional population projections fall short of capturing the evolving dynamics of households—the fundamental units of society. As a result, these projections offer an insufficient empirical basis for informing comprehensive public policy formulation. Addressing this gap, the present study conducts a dynamic simulation of future household changes in China, drawing upon the core framework of the Extended Cohort-Component Method for Household and Living Arrangement Projections (ProFamy). This study integrates four key modules—mortality, fertility, marriage, and leaving home/household formation—to simulate the trajectory of household change in China over the next three decades.

The findings reveal a profound and multifaceted transformation of Chinese households. In terms of quantity and size, although the total number of households continues to rise, average household size steadily declines, reflecting a persistent trend toward smaller household units. One-person households are projected to become the dominant household type. Two-person households show a modest increase in absolute number but a declining share in the overall household structure. By contrast, households comprising three or more persons exhibit sustained declines in both number and proportion.

At the structural level, significant shifts are observed in the age composition and functional characteristics of households. First, elderly households—those containing members aged 65 and above—are becoming increasingly common. Notably, households including the oldest-old (aged 80 and above) are growing at a particularly rapid pace. Solo-living among the elderly and two-person elderly-only households will become increasingly common. Second, the proportion of households with children (aged 18 and below) is systematically declining. Third, the number of young adult households—those comprising individuals aged 20 to 49—is expected to increase initially but eventually decline, accompanied by a sustained rise in young adults living alone. A related and critical development is the pronounced decrease in both the number and share of childbearing households—defined here as households containing a married woman of reproductive age. Fourth, while nuclear families are decreasing in number and stem families are increasing slightly, both categories are losing ground in terms of their relative share among all household types.

These trends point to three major structural risks facing Chinese households. The first is the simultaneous growth in the number of households and the contraction in household size, which together weaken traditional family functions such as caregiving and intra-household economic support. The second is the impending inversion of the household age structure, wherein elderly households are projected to substantially outnumber households with children. The third is the contraction of the young adult demographic and the associated decline in childbearing households, undermining both social vitality and the foundations of demographic reproduction. Collectively, these changes pose considerable challenges to the planning and delivery of public services, the robustness of the social security system, and the formulation of medium- and long-term socioeconomic strategies. The findings underscore the urgent need for policy frameworks to move beyond individual-level demographic projections and proactively adapt to the shifting structure and needs of households.

Keywords: Household Projection, Household Size, Household Structure

摘要： 中国社会正经历持续深化的人口少子化和老龄化。在此背景下，开展家庭户预测能够为公共政策制定和社会资源配置提供数据支撑。本文基于多维家庭人口预测模型ProFamy的核心框架，通过整合死亡、生育、婚姻及分居/立户四大模块，对未来中国家庭户的变化趋势进行动态仿真。结果显示，未来中国家庭户数量将持续上升，2040年将超过6亿户，平均家庭户规模将不断萎缩，逐步降至2人左右；含老年人的家庭户愈加普遍，老年独居问题更为突出；儿童家庭户数量呈波动走低态势；青年家庭户数量先升后降，青年独居现象增多且育龄家庭户数量减少；单人家庭数量快速增加，核心家庭数量持续走低而直系家庭数量略微上升。这些变化预示着中国未来家庭户可能面临数量增长与功能弱化、年龄结构倒挂、核心支撑群体收缩的结构性风险，这将对公共服务配置、社会保障体系建设以及中长期社会经济发展规划提出严峻挑战。

关键词: 家庭户预测, 家庭户规模, 家庭户结构