Population Research

China's Demographic Future in the New Era: A Forecasting Analysis of National and Urban-Rural Population Changes

Zhang Xianling, Zhai Zhenwu, Chen Wei

2026, 50(2): 3-20.

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China is currently undergoing a profound transformation in its demographic development, characterized by very low fertility rate,rapid ageing, and negative population growth. These demographic shifts have significantly reshaped the interaction between population and socioeconomic systems in the country. In this context, forecasting future population trends constitutes a critical prerequisite for understanding future population dynamics and addressing its impacts on socioeconomic development. Existing research on China's future population trends has predominantly focused on national-level analyses, with little attention paid to regional disparities between urban and rural areas. Using the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, this study employs the Cohort Component Method to simulate population trends both at the national and urban-rural levels from 2025 to 2100.
To capture the range of possible future population trajectories under varying fertility regimes, three scenarios are established. In the low scenario, fertility would continue to drop to extremely low level at 0.75 by 2035, while fertility would slowly rise to higher levels at 1.3 and 1.6 respectively by 2050 in the context of varying degrees of fertility policy incentives under medium and high scenarios. Results indicate that China's population will continue to shrink throughout the 21st century, declining to 1.18-1.28 billion by 2050, falling below 1 billion between 2063 and 2078, and further decreasing to 0.45-0.80 billion by 2100. The number of annual births in China is expected to follow a downward trajectory throughout the 21st century. Although a recovery in women's fertility rate may drive a fluctuating rebound in birth numbers, the long-term downward trend is unlikely to be altered due to the substantial challenges and limited potential for increasing fertility rate, as well as the ongoing reduction in the number of women of childbearing age. Moreover, fluctuations in the births will affect the size of school-age population through cohort transmission. Projections suggest that China's school-age population will experience a sharp reduction over the next 15 years, with substantial implications for the allocation of educational resources. Additionally, while the size and share of the working-age population aged 15-64 will fluctuate slightly, both are expected to trend downward during this century. Meanwhile, China will witness an acceleration in its population ageing. The proportion of elderly population aged 65 and above is projected to exceed 30% in the mid-to-late 2040s. By then, the size of elderly population will exceed 380 million, making China the country with the largest elderly population in the world.
The findings also highlight an increasing divergence between urban and rural population. The urban population is expected to continue growing over the next decade, remaining above 940 million until 2050, while the rural population will maintain a sustained shrinking trend throughout the century. Both urban and rural areas will experience a notable decline in the child population aged 0-14 within the next five years, with a reduction of approximately one-fifth in urban areas and around two-fifths in rural areas. The ageing process in rural areas is ahead of that in urban areas, although the urban elderly population will have a longer growth period and a higher peak value.

China's Household Development Trends in the New Era: A Forecasting Analysis of Changes in Household Number, Size, and Structure

Li Ting, Wang Qiang

2026, 50(2): 21-35.

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Amid the intensifying structural challenges of low fertility and population aging in China, conventional population projections fall short of capturing the evolving dynamics of households—the fundamental units of society. As a result, these projections offer an insufficient empirical basis for informing comprehensive public policy formulation. Addressing this gap, the present study conducts a dynamic simulation of future household changes in China, drawing upon the core framework of the Extended Cohort-Component Method for Household and Living Arrangement Projections (ProFamy). This study integrates four key modules—mortality, fertility, marriage, and leaving home/household formation—to simulate the trajectory of household change in China over the next three decades.
The findings reveal a profound and multifaceted transformation of Chinese households. In terms of quantity and size, although the total number of households continues to rise, average household size steadily declines, reflecting a persistent trend toward smaller household units. One-person households are projected to become the dominant household type. Two-person households show a modest increase in absolute number but a declining share in the overall household structure. By contrast, households comprising three or more persons exhibit sustained declines in both number and proportion.
At the structural level, significant shifts are observed in the age composition and functional characteristics of households. First, elderly households—those containing members aged 65 and above—are becoming increasingly common. Notably, households including the oldest-old (aged 80 and above) are growing at a particularly rapid pace. Solo-living among the elderly and two-person elderly-only households will become increasingly common. Second, the proportion of households with children (aged 18 and below) is systematically declining. Third, the number of young adult households—those comprising individuals aged 20 to 49—is expected to increase initially but eventually decline, accompanied by a sustained rise in young adults living alone. A related and critical development is the pronounced decrease in both the number and share of childbearing households—defined here as households containing a married woman of reproductive age. Fourth, while nuclear families are decreasing in number and stem families are increasing slightly, both categories are losing ground in terms of their relative share among all household types.
These trends point to three major structural risks facing Chinese households. The first is the simultaneous growth in the number of households and the contraction in household size, which together weaken traditional family functions such as caregiving and intra-household economic support. The second is the impending inversion of the household age structure, wherein elderly households are projected to substantially outnumber households with children. The third is the contraction of the young adult demographic and the associated decline in childbearing households, undermining both social vitality and the foundations of demographic reproduction. Collectively, these changes pose considerable challenges to the planning and delivery of public services, the robustness of the social security system, and the formulation of medium- and long-term socioeconomic strategies. The findings underscore the urgent need for policy frameworks to move beyond individual-level demographic projections and proactively adapt to the shifting structure and needs of households.

Healthy Ageing in China: Measurement System, Spatiotemporal Patterns, and Optimization Pathways

Chang Xiaokun, Liu Yufei, Yang Xirui, Zhang Wanying

2026, 50(2): 36-51.

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Against the backdrop of accelerated global population ageing, achieving “healthy ageing” has become a critical global policy objective. China faces severe challenges due to its large and rapidly growing older population, compounded by the distinctive national condition of “getting old before getting rich”—ageing at a relatively early stage of economic development. While existing research acknowledges these challenges, empirically grounded, comprehensive measurement frameworks tailored to the Chinese context remain scarce. This study addresses this gap by constructing a multidimensional index and conducting a systematic spatiotemporal analysis of China's healthy ageing levels from 2018 to 2023.
This research addresses three core questions: (1) How can a comprehensive measurement system for healthy ageing be constructed for China, considering China's unique socioeconomic conditions? (2) What are the temporal trends, structural characteristics, and regional disparities in China's healthy ageing levels? (3) Based on empirical findings, what targeted pathways can be proposed for optimization? To answer these questions, we developed a six-dimensional index encompassing physical health, mental health, social participation, living environment, economic security, and health behaviors and knowledge. The analysis integrates nationally representative microdata from the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) with macro-level statistics from the China Statistical Yearbook. Entropy method is employed for objective weighting to synthesize a composite Healthy Ageing Index (HAI), and kernel density estimation is utilized to analyze distribution dynamics and regional evolution.
The key findings reveal a steady improvement in China's national HAI, rising from 0.1653 in 2018 to 0.2339 in 2023. However, progress is highly uneven across dimensions and regions. Significant gains were observed in the dimensions of physical health, living environment, and health behaviors and knowledge, which emerged as the primary drivers of overall improvement. In contrast, mental health, social participation, and economic security showed minimal improvement, constituting critical and persistent bottlenecks. Furthermore, healthy ageing among China's older population exhibits significant regional disparities and dimensional imbalances.
Based on these empirical findings, this study proposes five interconnected optimization pathways: (1) strengthening the economic security system to solidify the foundation for healthy ageing; (2) constructing community-based psychosocial support networks to address gaps in mental well-being and social inclusion; (3) promoting life-cycle health management to sustain gains in physical health and behavioral improvements; (4) leveraging smart technologies for inclusive, age-friendly environmental upgrades while bridging the digital divide; and (5) cultivating an interdisciplinary talent pool to support the sustainable operation of service systems.
The contributions of our study are threefold. Firstly, it advances the theoretical framework by integrating the World Health Organization's “functional ability” concept with China's specific contextual factors into a coherent, multi-dimensional measurement system. Secondly, it provides a robust longitudinal and spatial analysis of healthy ageing trends in China using recent nationwide data and objective weighting techniques, offering novel empirical evidence on evolving regional patterns and dimensional bottlenecks. Thirdly, in terms of policy relevance, the findings and proposed pathways offer a data-driven, localized roadmap for policymakers to design targeted interventions, contributing to the strategic goals of “Healthy China 2030” and an effective response to population ageing.

How Does Employment-Retirement Trajectory Differentiation during the Peri-retirement Period Shape Later-Life Health Disparities? Evidence from a Life Course Perspective

Zhu Huoyun, Chen Shiqiang, Gong Huafang

2026, 50(2): 52-67.

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Population ageing in China has heightened concerns about health equality in later life. This study investigates how heterogeneous employment-retirement trajectories during the peri-retirement period shape later-life health disparities in China. Employment history and retirement arrangements are critical social determinants of health, while existing studies treat retirement as a discrete event rather than a dynamic process. From a life course perspective, we argue that health disparities in old age reflect the cumulative effects of distinct pathways out of the labour force. Using six waves (2011-2020) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), we focus on the peri-retirement period (ages 45-63), which spans the statutory retirement ages in China. We apply sequence analysis and cluster analysis to identify typical employment-retirement trajectories, and estimate trajectory-specific life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HLE) using Markov multistate models. To examine mechanisms, we use Shapley decomposition with counterfactual one-sided replacement to assess the contributions of health deterioration, recovery, and mortality to observed HLE disparities. We identify distinct trajectories by gender. Among men, four trajectories emerge: sustained agricultural work, formal non-agricultural employment with full retirement, long-term non-employment with full retirement, and sustained informal non-agricultural work. Among women, three trajectories emerge, with no equivalent sustained informal non-agricultural trajectory, reflecting gendered constraints in labour market participation. Substantial health disparities exist across these trajectory groups. Women have higher LE than men but slightly lower HLE, consistent with the gender health-survival paradox. The formal non-agricultural employment-full retirement group shows the most favourable LE and HLE, whereas the long-term non-employed group fares worst. As age rises, LE disparities across trajectories remain stable, while HLE disparities converge. Shapley decomposition shows that health deterioration and recovery capacity are the primary drivers of HLE disparities.
This study advances the life course research by reframing labor force exit as a dynamic process. Methodologically, it uses sequence analysis, multistate modelling, and counterfactual decomposition into a unified framework for trajectory identification, association estimation, and mechanism testing. The findings show that employment-retirement trajectories embody cumulative differences in income, social insurance coverage, and health resilience. In China's context, where social insurance schemes are stratified by employment type and sector, these trajectories reflect systematic differences in access to institutional protection. The results carry policy implications for China's ongoing gradual delay of statutory retirement ages. Targeted labor market support should be extended to peri-retirement workers, especially those in informal employment and long-term non-employment. Expanding social insurance coverage for disadvantaged groups and reducing institutional stratification in benefits could enhance health recovery capacity. Addressing gendered disadvantages requires recognising women's unpaid care work and ensuring more fair pension entitlements.

Research on the Mechanism of Smart Devices Empowering Older Adults' Internet-Based Health Management: A Dual-Dimensional Analysis of Cognition and Behavior

Peng Jiao, Wei Yukun

2026, 50(2): 68-83.

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Enhancing older adults' perceived convenience of internet-based health management and facilitating the shift from cognition to actual behavior are important pathways to promote the health of older adults and actively respond to population aging in the digital and intelligent era. However, little research has explored whether and how smart devices empower older adults in internet-based health management. This study develops an integrated cognition-behavior analytical framework to analyze the empowering effect of smart devices on internet-based health management among older adults and examines the mediating roles of internet usage ability and internet usage motivation in the relationship between smart devices and internet-based health management. Based on data drawn from the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) conducted in 2018 and 2020, this study employs logistic regression analysis and structural equation modeling to test the research hypotheses proposed for the research questions, and further conducts a systematic analysis on the robustness of the results with Propensity Score Matching (PSM), the two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) method, the Heckman two-step procedure and the replacement of the core explanatory variable.
Results indicate that smart devices significantly improve older adults' perceived convenience of internet-based health management and increase their likelihood of engaging in such behaviors. This conclusion remains robust across a series of rigorous tests. Based on cognitive and behavioral dimensions, older adults are classified into four types: active participants, passive participants, potential participants, and bystanders, with the results confirming clear transition pathways among these types. Specifically, smart devices enhance older adults' perceived convenience of internet-based health management by improving their information search ability and internal health motivation, thereby facilitating the conversion of bystanders into potential participants. Furthermore, smart devices promote the transition from potential participants to active participants by boosting their sense of social adaptation. However, software usage ability does not show a significant mediating effect, suggesting that some older adults with perceived convenience still fail to act due to their insufficient internet operational skills. In addition, substantial heterogeneity is found in the effects of different smart devices on older adults' internet-based health management, and the same device exerts distinctly different effects on their cognition versus actual behavior. For instance, smart wristbands and smart watches tend to encourage older adults to become potential participants, whereas all-in-one smart devices and smart cameras are more likely to facilitate their transition into active participants. These findings highlight the need for tailored interventions that facilitate older adults' adoption of digital technologies in line with their types of internet-based health management. Both community-based digital skills training and intergenerational digital support within families may help enhance older adults' software usage ability.
This study contributes to the literature by advancing the analytical focus from behavior alone to an integrated cognition-behavior perspective. Therefore, this shift clarifies the heterogeneous empowerment pathways of smart devices for older adults' internet-based health management. The findings provide robust empirical evidence for optimizing the supply of internet-based health services for older adults and promoting the development of age-friendly digital health systems.

Global Perspective on Ageing Research: International Progress and Comparative Insights for China

Du Peng, Ma Qifeng

2026, 50(2): 84-97.

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Population ageing is a common challenge faced by countries worldwide in the 21st century. China is currently undergoing the largest-scale and fastest-ageing process in the world. This demographic transition poses severe challenges to both national governance capacity and academic research. However, domestic ageing research started relatively late compared to Western nations and still has considerable room for improvement in understanding the global developmental trajectory and research frontiers of the field. This paper aims to review the evolution, frontier topics, and innovation mechanisms of international ageing research, aiming to provide insights for domestic studies and contribute to the formation of a disciplinary discourse system that is rooted in local contexts yet oriented toward the world.
International ageing research has undergone four main developmental stages. From the early 20th century to the 1950s, the field emerged under the predominant influence of the medical paradigm. The 1960s to 1970s marked a critical phase of theoretical formation and disciplinary independence. During the 1980s and 1990s, a clear critical turn became evident. Since the 21st century, a global perspective and interdisciplinary integration have become distinctive features. This trajectory profoundly reveals the progression of international ageing research from medical dominance to social scientific independence, from theoretical formation to critical reflection, and from a limited focus to a global outlook.
Based on the Web of Science (WOS) and Journal Citation Reports (JCR) from Clarivate Analytics, this paper reviews literature from 38 SSCI-indexed Gerontology journals and identifies ten major hot topics in current international ageing research. These broadly cover ageing population studies, health issues in old age, elderly care services, family issues in ageing, digital life of older adults, silver economy research, age-friendly environments, social work with older adults, social governance of ageing, and other related areas. Building on this, the paper examines innovations in the key elements of international ageing research. Research paradigms are evolving toward greater integration and refinement. Theoretical construction increasingly emphasizes the agency of older adults and critical reflection. Research methods increasingly rely on the integration of data resources and advanced analytical technologies.
These international developments offer multiple insights for ageing research in China. First, it is necessary to avoid the simple transplantation of Western theories and instead construct a local theoretical system that reflects cultural subjectivity. Second, the international comparative perspective should be expanded, with emphasis on contextual adaptation when drawing on the experiences of other countries. Third, greater attention should be paid to the inheritance of traditional Chinese wisdom on ageing. Fourth, it is essential to strengthen the development of data infrastructure, promote methodological and technological innovation, and enhance the practical value of academic outcomes.
This paper provides directional reference and theoretical support for constructing an independent knowledge system of Gerontology in China. It clarifies the international coordinates and innovative dynamics of disciplinary development, underscores the urgency of localized theoretical innovation, and offers evidence-based insights for China to improve its social governance of ageing and contribute Eastern wisdom to global Gerontology amid population ageing.

An “Event-Sequence-Time” Analysis of Marriage Delay

Song Jian, Tang Tianrong

2026, 50(2): 98-113.

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The postponement of first marriage has become a salient demographic change in China. However, existing explanations remain divided and often conceptualize age at first marriage as a single outcome indicator, with insufficient attention to the life course processes underlying its formation. This study aims to clarify the mechanisms of delayed first marriage in China by distinguishing the differential effects of changes in life course sequencing and timing shifts on age at first marriage, while examining how individual endowments and family background shape marriage transitions.
Drawing on life course theory, the study proposes an integrated “event-sequence-time” analytical framework capturing both the processual and outcome dimensions of first marriage. Within this framework, two distinct mechanisms of marriage postponement are identified. The first is a sequence effect, whereby the standardized life course is altered and marriage is no longer treated as a necessary life event, reflecting a process of de-institutionalization in which marriage is actively postponed or forgone. The second is a timing effect, whereby the standardized sequence remains largely intact, but delays in preceding events or the lengthening of transition periods lead to a higher age at first marriage.
The analysis draws on pooled cross-sectional data from five waves of the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS 2005, 2006, 2008, 2018, and 2021). The study examines the sequencing and timing of three key early-life events, namely graduation, entry into first job, and first marriage, and their variation across cohorts. Descriptive statistics based on the proposed framework are first used to identify dominant life course patterns. Binary logistic regression models then estimate how individual endowments and family background influence adherence to a standardized life course sequence. To isolate the timing effect and reduce confounding from prolonged schooling, accelerated failure time (AFT) models are used to examine the effects of individual endowments and family background on the transition duration from graduation to first marriage.
The findings show that more than three-quarters of respondents follow a standardized sequence of “graduation-first job-first marriage.” Across cohorts, the average ages at graduation, first job entry, and first marriage have all increased.Meanwhile, the transition time from graduation to first marriage has shortened across cohorts. Individuals with higher endowments are more likely to deviate from the standardized sequence and experience faster transitions into first marriage, whereas those from more advantaged family backgrounds are more likely to adhere to standardized sequences and have longer transition times. The sequence effect operates mainly among people with high individual endowments, while the timing effect is widespread across social groups. Overall, the postponement of first marriage in China mainly reflects timing effects rather than structural changes in the sequencing of life course events.
By integrating process and outcome dimensions, this study advances the understanding of marriage timing as a life course transition shaped by both event sequencing and timing dynamics. The findings suggest that policies to encourage age-appropriate marriage and childbearing in China need to consider the structured linkage between marriage, education, and employment, rather than focusing solely on marital or fertility-related interventions.

The Impact of Acculturation on Residence Intentions among Foreign High-skilled Professionals in China: A Case Study of Guangzhou and Shenzhen

Li Shuzhuo, Xue Lin, Bai Meng

2026, 50(2): 114-128.

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Driven by technological and economic growth, China has attracted a substantial number of high-skilled professionals to work and settle in the country. However, persistent cross-cultural adaptation challenges continue to constrain the full deployment of their expertise and undermine their long-term retention. This points to a structural imbalance in China's talent attraction policy, which has historically prioritized recruitment and entry over integration and sustained support. Research on acculturation and residence intentions of foreign high-skilled professionals carries significant practical relevance.
Drawing on data from the 2023 Survey of Social Condition of Foreign Talents in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, this study employs a logit model to systematically identify the acculturation patterns of high-skilled foreign professionals in China and delineate the mechanisms by which these patterns influence residence intentions through life satisfaction, place dependence, and place identity.
The analysis revealed four primary acculturation strategies: assimilation-inclined integration, integration, moderate integration, and separation. These findings extend and empirically test the applicability of bidirectional acculturation theory to non-traditional immigration contexts. Most professionals adopt proactive strategies (assimilation-inclined integration, integration, moderate integration), all of which show positive associations with residence intentions in both the short and long term. By contrast, only a minority (16.07%) resort to separation—a finding that contrasts with earlier observations of short-term high-skilled migrants frequently remaining within an “expat bubble”. Second, these strategies influence residence intentions through distinct mediating mechanisms. Integration operates via life satisfaction, place dependence, and place identity; assimilation-inclined integration and moderate integration operate via life satisfaction and place dependence. Third, self-efficacy plays a significant protective role, both by indirectly influencing settlement intentions through moderating the effects of assimilation-oriented acculturation strategies on life satisfaction and place identity, and by showing a significant positive correlation with long-term settlement intentions. Fourth, proactive acculturation has a stronger positive effect on residence intentions of family-reunion migrants than on those of corporate expatriates, whereas moderate integration is more effective in boosting residence intentions of career-oriented migrants. The frequency of voluntary participation is a direct positive predictor of settlement intentions among separated individuals. However, high-frequency participation undermines the positive effect of integration-oriented and moderate integration strategies on short-term settlement intentions. Autonomous participation attenuates only the effect of integration-oriented strategies on short-term settlement intentions. In contrast, the influence pathways of acculturation strategies remain largely unaffected by variations in the frequency of community-based participation.
We propose an integrated three-pronged strategy to promote proactive cultural adaptation and strengthen long-term retention among foreign high-skilled professionals in China. This involves: (1) establishing a targeted identification and dynamic evaluation mechanism to deliver motivation-strategy aligned interventions; (2) defining a clear collaborative governance framework between the government and market actors across functional and psychological dimensions to clarify roles and enhance synergy; and (3) constructing a tiered social participation platform, guided by public-service initiatives and supported by community networks, to provide structured pathways for meaningful engagement. Collectively, these measures are designed to cultivate an enabling ecosystem that facilitates adaptive acculturation and systematically enhances foreign professionals' willingness to pursue sustained career development in China.

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