Abstract: Against the backdrop of delayed marriage, increasing singlehood, and the growing prevalence of overtime work, understanding how overtime work shapes young adults' marital decisions has become an issue of both academic and policy importance. This study examines the relationship between overtime working hours and marriage intention, as well as the underlying mechanisms, using data from the 2023 “Specialized Survey on Delayed marriage, Childlessness or Delayed childbearing, and Low fertility Groups” conducted by Renmin University of China. Focusing on unmarried individuals aged 30-49 who engage in overtime work, this paper employs ordered logit models to explore the nonlinear association between overtime working hours and marriage intention.

The results reveal a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between overtime working hours and marriage intention.A moderate level of overtime is associated with higher marriage intention, whereas excessive overtime significantly suppresses individuals' willingness to marry. This finding suggests that the impact of overtime work on marriage intention is not linear but varies by the degree of overtime exposure. Mechanism analysis, grounded in the work-family conflict theory and work-family enrichment theory, shows that overtime work exerts dual and competing influences. On the one hand, excessive overtime increases health pressure and strengthens the salience of work-role identity, both of which crowd out individuals' capacity and willingness to assume family roles. This reflects the work-family conflict effect. On the other hand, overtime work increases individual income, which enhances economic resources and strengthens individuals' bargaining power in the marriage market, thereby raising marriage intention. This reflects the work-family enrichment effect. The empirical results confirm that health pressure, identity salience, and individual income serve as important pathways linking overtime working hours and marriage intention.

Heterogeneity analysis further reveals contextual and gender differences. The inverted U-shaped relationship is statistically significant in non-first-tier cities but not in first-tier cities, possibly because overtime work has become normalized in major metropolitan areas,thereby reducing variation in overtime exposure and individuals' sensitivity to it. In addition, excessive overtime significantly suppresses marriage intention among unmarried women, while the inhibitory effect is not statistically significant among men. This finding is consistent with gender role expectations and the greater work-family conflict typically experienced by women.

This study contributes to the literature in several ways. First, it identifies the nonlinear effect of overtime working hours on marriage intention, offering new empirical evidence on how work time allocation influences marital decisions. Second, by focusing exclusively on individuals who actually engage in overtime work, the study avoids confounding effects from those without overtime exposure and more precisely captures the difference between moderate and excessive overtime. Third, by simultaneously testing the mechanisms of health pressure, identity salience, and individual income, the paper integrates the work-family conflict and enrichment perspectives into a unified explanatory framework. Finally, the findings provide policy implications for promoting work-family balance, improving labor protection, and designing differentiated marriage and family support policies across regions and genders, thereby contributing to sustainable demographic, social, and economic development goals.

Keywords: Marriage Intention, Overtime Working Hours, Older Unmarried Groups

摘要： 在晚婚不婚趋势加剧、超时工作日益普遍的背景下，厘清超时工作如何影响个体婚姻决策具有重要的现实意义。本文基于中国人民大学2023年中国不婚不育少育群体专项调查数据，聚焦30~49岁有超时工作行为的大龄未婚群体，采用定序Logit回归模型，探究超时工作时长与结婚意愿的关系及其关联机制与异质性。研究发现，超时工作时长与结婚意愿呈倒U型关系，适度的超时工作显著提升个体结婚意愿，过度的超时工作则显著抑制个体结婚意愿。进一步分析发现，超时工作存在双重效应：一方面通过增加健康压力、突显工作角色产生工作—家庭冲突效应，从而降低结婚意愿；另一方面通过提高个体收入发挥工作—家庭增益效应，从而增强结婚意愿。异质性分析显示，该倒U型关系仅在非一线城市显著，且过度超时工作对大龄未婚女性结婚意愿的抑制效应显著，对男性则无明显影响。

关键词: 结婚意愿, 超时工作时长, 大龄未婚群体