Abstract: This study takes pace as an analytical perspective and integrates multiple Chinese and international survey datasets to examine the pace structure across different stages of marriage and childbearing in China. It adopts two complementary strategies: international comparison and comparison between attitudes and behavior. Beyond the direction and magnitude of change, the study asks when changes in different stages began, how rapidly they proceeded, and how their uneven paces have restructured the overall process.

The international comparison yields three main findings. First, nontraditional events, including cohabitation, divorce, and nonmarital childbearing, have spread at different speeds in China, but none has substantively replaced mainstream marriage and childbearing arrangements. Cohabitation experience has increased relatively rapidly among young cohorts, marital instability has risen slowly, and the share of nonmarital births has shown no clear upward trend. Second, the postponement of entry into marriage and childbearing began relatively late and remains limited in cumulative magnitude, but the process from first marriage to the completion of childbearing has compressed rapidly. Mean ages at first marriage and first birth have continued to rise, whereas cohort completed fertility has fallen sharply and the intervals from first marriage to first birth and last birth have narrowed much faster than in other countries. Third, the outer boundaries of the process remain relatively stable: the proportions of lifelong non-marriage and childlessness have increased only slightly, and near-universal marriage and childbearing have persisted.

These patterns distinguish three broad pathways. Western countries represent an “overall deconstruction-new equilibrium” pathway, in which cohabitation substitutes for marriage, nonmarital childbearing is widespread, and lifelong non-marriage and childlessness rose substantially before stabilizing. Japan and South Korea represent an “accelerated boundary-loosening” pathway, characterized by low levels of cohabitation and nonmarital childbearing but rapidly rising lifelong non-marriage and childlessness. China represents a “stable boundaries-internal restructuring” pathway: mainstream marriage and childbearing persist, whereas postponement, fertility decline, compression of the marriage and childbearing process, and emerging marriage and childbearing events change at differentiated speeds.

The attitude-behavior comparison further reveals stage-specific divergence. Attitudinal change leads behavioral change in domains centered on individual choice, including acceptance of non-marriage, childlessness, cohabitation, and divorce. Behavioral change leads attitudinal adjustment in domains more strongly constrained by practical conditions, including the timing of first marriage and first birth, and the number of children.

China's “stable boundaries-internal restructuring” pathway reflects two intertwined mechanisms. The stability of its outer boundaries stems from the close coupling of marriage and childbearing, Confucian ideas of lineage continuation, and reinforcing institutional arrangements. Internal restructuring is driven jointly by modernization and policy change. By identifying this pathway, the study offers an empirical account of China's marriage and childbearing transition that supplements and revises theories of the second demographic transition, the deinstitutionalization of marriage, and compressed modernity. It shows that compressed transformation does not accelerate uniformly across all stages but instead exhibits substantial internal differentiation. The pace perspective also helps assess whether social norms, institutional arrangements, and public policies can adapt to rapid changes in marriage and childbearing.

Keywords: Marriage and Fertility Transition, Pace, Second Demographic Transition, Attitude and Behavior, Cross-National Comparison

摘要： 本文以速度为分析视角，综合使用中国和国际上的多源调查数据，通过国际比较与观念—行为对照两种分析策略，系统刻画中国婚育进程的变动情况。国际比较显示，同居、离婚、非婚生育等非传统婚育事件在中国虽略有扩散，但均未能替代主流婚育安排；中国婚育进入时点的推迟幅度有限，但婚内生育进程快速压缩；终身不婚、终身无孩等婚育边界事件的扩散极为缓慢，普婚普育的格局仍长期延续；与欧美国家的“整体解构—新稳态型”路径、日韩的“边界加速松动型”路径相比，中国的婚育变迁呈现出主流婚育进程延续、内部演变速度有所分化的形态。对中国婚育观念与行为变迁的比较发现，在以个体选择为核心的婚育环节上，观念先行；在受现实条件制约较强的婚育环节上，行为变化快于观念调整。本文针对中国婚育变迁提出的“边界稳定—内部重组型”路径，补充和修正了第二次人口转变、婚姻去制度化与压缩现代性等理论。

关键词: 婚育变迁, 速度, 第二次人口转变, 观念与行为, 国际比较