Population Research

Attitudes toward Marriage among Unmarried Youth in Large Chinese Cities: Evidence from the 2025 Beijing Survey

Jin Yongai, Hu Wenbo

2026, 50(4): 3-21.

Asbtract ( )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

Using data from the 2025 Beijing Survey on Unmarried Youth's Attitudes toward Marriage, this study examines how urban unmarried youth aged 20-40 view marriage and identifies the factors associated with their intention to marry. The survey focuses on youth who have entered or are about to enter the labor market but have not yet married, allowing observation of how marital expectations form amid the pressures of work, income, housing, and urban life. The analysis draws on descriptive statistics, latent profile analysis, multinomial logit models, and survey experiments on working hours, income, and online information about marriage.

Findings show that urban unmarried youth have not yet rejected marriage. Most respondents have dating experience, and fewer than 10% report no intention to marry. Clear plans, however, are far from the norm of universal marriage: only 49.7% intend to marry, while 42.1% prefer to “let things take their course” (shunqiziran). Men are more likely to express clear marriage intentions, whereas women are disproportionately concentrated in the “shunqiziran” group. These patterns suggest that the central issue is not a firm rejection of marriage but the spread of conditionality and deferral.

Latent profile analysis identifies four profiles of marriage values: high-endorsement, stable-endorsement, emotion-oriented, and low-endorsement. The first two together account for nearly 70% of respondents, indicating that marriage continues to be regarded as meaningful. However, the remaining profiles reveal that a substantial minority no longer evaluates marriage primarily through necessity, reproduction, or material security, but instead emphasizes emotional quality, individual choice, and personal experience.

The weakening of marriage intentions is closely related to practical constraints and perceived risks. Economic pressure, long working hours, career priorities, and spouse-matching difficulties are widely regarded as barriers even among those who intend to marry. Men more often cite economic pressure, whereas women more often cite post-marital family responsibilities, marital risk, and possible declines in quality of life. The “shunqiziran” group does not express a stable preference for non-marital lifestyles; rather, their hesitation reflects unmet preconditions and unresolved risk expectations. Survey experiments show that higher income and shorter working hours each raise marriage intentions, but trading one for the other yields no improvement, indicating that income security and disposable time are jointly necessary. The online information environment also plays an important role: negative online marriage-related information suppresses marriage intentions more strongly than positive information enhances them, suggesting that the internet functions as a risk-perception amplifier rather than an independent source of low marriage intentions.

Overall, low marriage intentions among urban unmarried youth should not be read as the product of a fundamental shift in values. They are better interpreted as the joint outcome of the changing meaning of marriage, rising barriers to entry, the unequal gendering of family responsibilities, and the online information environment—conditions that make marriage feel less attainable rather than less desirable. Policies should move beyond value advocacy by reducing working hours and pressure, improving economic and housing support, promoting gender equality in family responsibilities, and improving the public information environment surrounding marriage and family life, in order to help youth transform their remaining marital expectations into achievable life plans.

Marriage and Fertility Transition in China: Pace, Pathway, and Cross-National Comparison

Yu Jia, He Yuchen, Tang Yuxin

2026, 50(4): 22-40.

Asbtract ( )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

This study takes pace as an analytical perspective and integrates multiple Chinese and international survey datasets to examine the pace structure across different stages of marriage and childbearing in China. It adopts two complementary strategies: international comparison and comparison between attitudes and behavior. Beyond the direction and magnitude of change, the study asks when changes in different stages began, how rapidly they proceeded, and how their uneven paces have restructured the overall process.

The international comparison yields three main findings. First, nontraditional events, including cohabitation, divorce, and nonmarital childbearing, have spread at different speeds in China, but none has substantively replaced mainstream marriage and childbearing arrangements. Cohabitation experience has increased relatively rapidly among young cohorts, marital instability has risen slowly, and the share of nonmarital births has shown no clear upward trend. Second, the postponement of entry into marriage and childbearing began relatively late and remains limited in cumulative magnitude, but the process from first marriage to the completion of childbearing has compressed rapidly. Mean ages at first marriage and first birth have continued to rise, whereas cohort completed fertility has fallen sharply and the intervals from first marriage to first birth and last birth have narrowed much faster than in other countries. Third, the outer boundaries of the process remain relatively stable: the proportions of lifelong non-marriage and childlessness have increased only slightly, and near-universal marriage and childbearing have persisted.

These patterns distinguish three broad pathways. Western countries represent an “overall deconstruction-new equilibrium” pathway, in which cohabitation substitutes for marriage, nonmarital childbearing is widespread, and lifelong non-marriage and childlessness rose substantially before stabilizing. Japan and South Korea represent an “accelerated boundary-loosening” pathway, characterized by low levels of cohabitation and nonmarital childbearing but rapidly rising lifelong non-marriage and childlessness. China represents a “stable boundaries-internal restructuring” pathway: mainstream marriage and childbearing persist, whereas postponement, fertility decline, compression of the marriage and childbearing process, and emerging marriage and childbearing events change at differentiated speeds.

The attitude-behavior comparison further reveals stage-specific divergence. Attitudinal change leads behavioral change in domains centered on individual choice, including acceptance of non-marriage, childlessness, cohabitation, and divorce. Behavioral change leads attitudinal adjustment in domains more strongly constrained by practical conditions, including the timing of first marriage and first birth, and the number of children.

China's “stable boundaries-internal restructuring” pathway reflects two intertwined mechanisms. The stability of its outer boundaries stems from the close coupling of marriage and childbearing, Confucian ideas of lineage continuation, and reinforcing institutional arrangements. Internal restructuring is driven jointly by modernization and policy change. By identifying this pathway, the study offers an empirical account of China's marriage and childbearing transition that supplements and revises theories of the second demographic transition, the deinstitutionalization of marriage, and compressed modernity. It shows that compressed transformation does not accelerate uniformly across all stages but instead exhibits substantial internal differentiation. The pace perspective also helps assess whether social norms, institutional arrangements, and public policies can adapt to rapid changes in marriage and childbearing.

Beyond a Marriage-Centered Framework: Non-Marital Relationships in International Contexts and Their Implications for Chinese Families

Qian Yue, Hu Yang

2026, 50(4): 41-55.

Asbtract ( )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

Over the past few decades, there have been signs of a marriage decline across many world regions. Alongside this trend, individuals increasingly form intimate partnerships or family-like ties outside marriage. Non-marital and alternative family configurations are no longer rare exceptions, but are emerging as significant family forms that coexist with marriage while reshaping the meaning and boundaries of family in everyday life. Chinese families are undergoing profound transformations, as manifested in the growing consensus among younger generations that marriage is no longer “a must” in life. Despite shifting attitudes toward marriage among young people and increasingly diverse forms of intimate relationships, research on Chinese families still centers on marriage.

Drawing on international scholarship and cross-national data, we move beyond a marriage-centered lens to examine three forms of non-marital relationships—cohabitation, living-apart-together (LAT) partnerships, and chosen families (i.e., families defined not by marriage or blood but by mutual support and enduring solidarity). We analyze the trends and organizing logics of these non-marital relationships and consider their implications for China.

The findings reveal that among women aged 30-34, the percentage of the married declined from 99% in 1982 to 88% in 2020 in China, and the corresponding figures fell from 63%-87% in the 1980s to below 50% in 2020-2023 in many Western countries. Despite their unmarried status, many people still “do” family in alternative ways. In 2022-2024, 18%-59% of unmarried adults aged 25-44 had a cohabiting partner in Western countries, compared with around 2% in China. In European countries, 5%-13% of adults aged 18-79 were in LAT partnerships between 2020 and 2024, although comparable figures for China remain unavailable. Evidence from Western scholarship and Chinese public discourse suggests that chosen families are not confined to marginalized groups, but rather represent a common way in which people, especially never-married older women, construct intimacy beyond couple relationships.

Non-marital relationships carry different meanings in the West and China. In Western societies, cohabitation has increasingly become an alternative to marriage, whereas in China it is mainly considered a prelude to marriage. Western LAT partnerships emphasize individual autonomy, yet in China, their formation is shaped more by structural factors such as the household registration (hukou) system. Chosen families in Western contexts are often associated with marginalized groups and viewed as an individualized family form, whereas in China such family practices may be primarily driven by anxiety about old-age care.

This study makes several contributions. It highlights that family change is reflected not only in the transformation of the marital institution but also in the diversification of non-marital relationships. By moving beyond a marriage-centered framework, this study broadens the scope of research on Chinese families. It argues that Chinese families are shaped by the dynamic interplay between structural resilience and practical flexibility. As such, non-marital relationships must be understood in relation to institutional contexts, life-course trajectories, and individual practices. This study advocates for incorporating non-marital relationship modules into large-scale social surveys in China to facilitate research in this area. Foregrounding non-marital relationships, this study enables a more comprehensive understanding of the growing diversity and complexity of family life in contemporary China, while contributing to policy development and theoretical advancement amid rapid societal and family transformations.

Population Ageing, Savings Structure Optimization, and Economic Growth

Mu Huaizhong, Zhang Dongxue

2026, 50(4): 56-71.

Asbtract ( )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

As population ageing deepens in China, promoting economic growth has become an urgent issue. Previous studies have mainly examined its impact on economic growth through changes in aggregate savings or rising pension deficits. Although some studies embed savings and pensions in a unified framework, most still view their relationship as merely a substitution mechanism in old-age security, paying insufficient attention to differences in allocation structure and efficiency, as well as their broader implications for long-term economic growth.

Against this background, this paper incorporates the three-pillar pension system into a general equilibrium overlapping-generations model and constructs an indicator of the pension-savings conversion rate. Using numerical simulation, it investigates how savings are transformed into pensions under population ageing, identifies the optimal scheme and parameter combinations, and evaluates the adaptability and relative advantages of different schemes.

The conclusions are as follows. First, population ageing affects economic growth not mainly by changing aggregate savings, but by impeding the effective conversion of savings into pensions and thereby weakening capital formation. Second, the three-pillar coordinated Scheme P4 is the optimal choice for coping with the ageing shock and sustaining long-term economic growth. The results further suggest that the current parameter settings of China's first and second pillars are broadly appropriate, whereas the third pillar still has room for improvement. The theoretically optimal parameters for the third pillar are an annual contribution ceiling of RMB 19336 and a tax rate of 2.31% on pension benefit withdrawals. Third, simulations of future ageing scenarios show that if the system continues to rely heavily on the first pillar, which is dominated by pay-as-you-go (PAYG) financing, China's basic pension insurance system will face an unsustainable contribution burden. As population ageing intensifies, a transition from PAYG financing toward funded pillars is therefore necessary.

Based on these findings, future reforms should accelerate the development of the second and third pillars while maintaining the basic protection function of the first pillar. Priority should be given to improving contribution incentives, tax preferences, and account portability mechanisms for the third pillar, and to broadening the conversion of savings into pension capital through pension financial product innovation, thereby strengthening the supply of long-term capital. The pension system should also be better coordinated with medical insurance and long-term care insurance to reduce precautionary savings driven by health and care risks.

The marginal contributions of this study are twofold. First, it extends the existing framework, which has largely focused on the first-pillar basic pension system, by incorporating the three-pillar pension system into a general equilibrium overlapping-generations model and constructing an indicator of the pension savings conversion rate. This enables the paper to examine the mechanism through which population ageing affects economic growth from the perspective of savings structure optimization. Second, this paper moves beyond the social security function of the pension system and reconceptualizes it as an instrument for improving the pension savings conversion rate, thereby identifying the reform scheme and parameter combinations that maximize the growth-enhancing effect of savings conversion.

Consumption Structure and Its Determinants of the Empty-nest Elderly in Rural and Urban Areas in China

Wu Haixia, Su Jie, Wu Fan

2026, 50(4): 72-87.

Asbtract ( )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

Consumption plays a foundational role in economic development, and enhancing resident consumption is one of the key pathways to promote stable growth in consumption. According to the Seventh National Population Census, the proportion of empty-nest elderly households in China reached 43.55%, corresponding to approximately 145 million empty-nest elderly individuals. It is estimated that by 2030, the number of urban and rural empty-nest elderly will rise to 200 million. As the population of empty-nest elderly continues to grow, their consumption will exert an increasingly significant influence on the development of the resident consumption market.

This paper defines empty-nest elderly as single-living elderly and elderly couples whose children do not live with them, and divides the consumption structure of the elderly into four categories: basic living consumption, medical consumption, developmental consumption, and enjoyment consumption. Using five waves of data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) covering 2011 to 2020, this study systematically analyzes the development trend of consumption structure and its influencing factors for empty-nest elderly in urban and rural areas in China. In order to distinguish individual consumption from household consumption, this study first employs the least squares method, following the analytical frameworks of Mankiw and Weil (1989) as well as Mi and Ren (2014), controlling for household size and structure, age composition of household members, and household income to estimate individual consumption expenditures for elderly couples living without children and the elderly co-residing with family members. Second, the Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort (HAPC) model is applied to analyze the changing trends in consumption structures among urban and rural empty-nest elderly. Finally, the Fractional Probit regression model is utilized to examine the determinants influencing the consumption structure of the empty-nest elderly.

The result reveals that the consumption structure of urban and rural empty-nest elderly shows significant age, period, and cohort trends. Young-old and oldest-old empty-nest elderly have higher basic living consumption and lower medical consumption, and middle-old elderly have lower basic living consumption and higher medical consumption. Over the long term, the basic living consumption of the empty-nest elderly has decreased, while developmental consumption and enjoyment consumption have increased. And the medical consumption of the elderly couples and urban single-living elderly has decreased, while the medical consumption of rural single-living elderly has increased. Empty-nest elderly from earlier birth cohorts have higher basic living consumption and lower medical consumption; urban empty-nest elderly couples from later birth cohorts have higher developmental consumption, while the cohort difference in developmental consumption among rural empty-nest elderly is minimal. The age effect of developmental and enjoyment consumption, and the cohort effect of enjoyment consumption among empty-nest elderly are not significant. The economic ability, health status, social security, cognitive ability, and internet ability of empty-nest elderly all have significant impacts on their consumption structure through the social participation path.

The study suggests that increasing the economic income, advocating emphasis on disease prevention and health management, expanding social participation, advancing age-friendly internet adaptation, and devoting to strength digital skills training for the elderly will help improve and upgrade the consumption structure of empty-nest elderly.

How Does Age-Friendly Home Renovation Affect the Health of Older Adults? Evidence from CLASS

Sheng Yi'nan, Zhang Meng, Wang Lianqiu

2026, 50(4): 88-102.

Asbtract ( )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

With the deepening of China's population ageing, the prevalence of chronic diseases and disability among older adults is rising. How to delay the disability and improve the health status of the elderly has become social issues. Data from China's Seventh National Population Census show that in 2020, over 95% of older adults chose home-based elderly care. However, the existing residential buildings in China exhibit insufficient age-friendly home renovation due to outdated building standards and suboptimal spatial planning from earlier periods. To address this issue, China issued the Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Implementation of Age-Friendly Home Renovation Projects for the Elderly, aiming to improve the quality and capacity of home-based elderly care services by promoting the age-friendly home renovation. However, whether it can effectively promote elderly health still requires further empirical verification.

Based on the data of China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) from 2018 to 2023, this study adopts the two-way fixed effect model to empirically examine the impact, potential mechanism, heterogeneity, and synergistic effect with smart devices of age-friendly home renovation on older adults' health. Grounded in the ICF framework, the study reveals the health-promoting pathways of age-friendly home renovation from physical, social, and psychological dimensions, and its synergistic effect with smart elderly care devices. This study provides practical references for promoting the construction of age-friendly home renovation, developing smart home-based elderly care services, and improving the building of age-friendly environments, thus possessing important theoretical and practical implications.

The findings indicate that age-friendly home renovation not only reduces the degree of disability among older adults but also alleviates the level of depressive symptoms. Mechanism analysis reveals that age-friendly home renovation promotes older adults' health by reducing the risk of falls and social isolation, as well as by promoting positive age identity. Heterogeneity analysis reveals stronger health-promoting effects among older adults aged 75 and above, those in empty-nest households, and those in rural areas. Moderation effect results show that smart devices positively moderate the relationship between age-friendly home renovation and older adults' health. Based on these findings, this study proposes policy recommendations including improving the quality and health benefits of age-friendly home renovation, implementing stratified and targeted renovation strategies, and advancing the deep integration of age-friendly home renovation with smart elderly care.

This study goes beyond previous policy evaluations that primarily focused on community public environments, shifting the unit of analysis to the home environment and examining the health effects of age-friendly home renovation from the perspective of physical and mental health, thereby addressing the limitations in existing research that has paid insufficient attention to the health impacts of family physical spaces. By constructing a systematic pathway across physical, social, and psychological environmental dimensions, this study extends age-friendly home renovation from the traditional “competence-press” fit model toward a new “resource-empowerment” perspective. Furthermore, by incorporating smart devices into the person-environment interaction framework, this study not only expands the analytical framework of person-tool-environment interaction within ecological theory of ageing but also enhances the explanatory power and application value of this theory in the context of smart elderly care.

Impacts of Internet Use on Reemployment Willingness and Behavior of Retired Older Adults in the Digital Era

Li Jingbo, Li Yi

2026, 50(4): 103-118.

Asbtract ( )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

Against the backdrop of persistently low fertility rates, China has entered a sustained stage of population decline. The traditional demographic dividend is gradually diminishing, and the old-age dependency ratio is rising. Leveraging and developing older adults as human resources has become a key measure for implementing the strategy of actively responding to population ageing. The widespread adoption of the internet presents both new opportunities and challenges for developing these resources. Using data from the Survey on Digital Division and Inclusion of Older Adults in China, this study selects retired males aged 60 and above and retired females aged 55 and above as its research subjects. The study systematically examines the impact of internet use on their reemployment willingness and behavior and its underlying mechanisms.

The findings reveal that internet use significantly increases the reemployment willingness among retired older adults who have not returned to work. However, its effect on actual reemployment behavior is not statistically significant. This suggests that the role of internet in promoting reemployment among the older adults is primarily reflected at the level of willingness and has not effectively translated into actual labor force participation. Further cluster analysis based on the functions and duration of retired older adults' internet use identifies three distinct types of internet users, such as video entertainment pattern, social communication pattern, and deep-use pattern. The results show that the reliance on social communication and deep internet use significantly enhances reemployment willingness, whereas usage focused on video entertainment has no significant impact. Mechanism analysis indicates that access to online job information and the expansion of social networks partially mediate the impact of digital inclusion on retirees' reemployment willingness. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect of internet use is more pronounced among retirees formerly employed outside the state sector, low-income retirees, and female retirees.

The contributions of this study are threefold. First, by distinguishing between reemployment willingness and behavior, it reveals the unique characteristic of “willingness enhancement but insufficient behavior conversion” regarding the influence of internet use on retirees' reemployment. Second, it demonstrates that the effect of the internet depends not merely on access, but crucially on the content and depth of digital use and the extent of digital inclusion. Internet uses oriented toward social communication, information accessibility, and learning applications are more conducive to enhancing retirees' perception of job opportunities and confidence in reemployment. Third, the study explores the mechanisms of reemployment promotion through two dimensions: obtaining online recruitment information and expanding social networks. It further identifies its differentiated effects across groups with varying resource endowments and employment constraints. The study suggests the need to shift the focus of older adults' human resource development from increasing internet access to improving the quality of digital inclusion. This includes establishing an age-friendly reemployment information service system and providing targeted support for older adults outside the state sector, those with low incomes, women, and those with low levels of digital inclusion, thereby facilitating the transition from reemployment willingness to actual labor participation.

How Does Green Technology Innovation Affect Ecological Welfare Performance for Population Well-being? An Empirical Study Based on the Moderating Effect of Environmental Governance Investment

Wang Shengzhe

2026, 50(4): 119-132.

Asbtract ( )

References | Related Articles | Metrics

Whether green technology innovation can effectively raise the level of population well-being per unit of ecological pressure is a critical issue in high-quality development. Based on a panel dataset covering 31 provincial-level administrative divisions in China from 2013 to 2023, the empirical analysis employs a two-way fixed effects model and panel quantile regression. The explained variable is the ratio of a population well-being index to the ecological pressure index. The population well-being index covers four dimensions, including income, educational attainment, health security, and environmental amenities, while the ecological pressure index integrates resource consumption and pollution indicators. The core explanatory variable is the logarithm of granted green patents, lagged by one year to capture the time required for innovations to generate tangible well-being outcomes.

This study has three findings. First, green technology innovation significantly improves the ecological welfare performance. This conclusion remains robust after variable substitution, alternative estimation methods, and a 2SLS instrumental variable approach that addresses endogeneity concerns. Second, the effect shows pronounced regional heterogeneity. In the eastern region, where the innovation ecosystem is relatively mature, significant positive effects appear across all quantiles. In the central region, where the economy has historically relied on heavy and chemical industries, the effect is significantly negative at medium-to-high quantiles, reflecting carbon lock-in and structural inertia in the low-carbon transition. In the western region, where technological absorptive capacity remains limited, no statistically significant effect is detected. Third, both industrial pollution control investment intensity and fiscal environmental expenditure intensity positively moderate the conversion of green technology innovation into ecological welfare performance. Their moderating mechanisms differ: the former directly creates large-scale application demand for green technology equipment and services through investment projects; the latter improves the regional ecological background and shares the social costs of transition, creating basic conditions for technology diffusion through a longer public service chain. The two together form functional complementarity from the demand side and the public goods provision side, respectively.

This study extends the evaluation of green technology innovation from the production sphere to the well-being sphere, constructing an integrated framework linking technology, governance investment, and population well-being. By adopting a ratio-based measure of ecological welfare performance, it explicitly quantifies the efficiency with which ecological inputs are converted into multi-dimensional well-being outputs. The analysis further distinguishes between technology innovation (the creation and patenting of new knowledge) and technology application (commercialization and diffusion), identifying environmental governance investment as a critical boundary condition moderating the latter stage.

The findings imply that the well-being effect of green technology innovation hinges on the alignment between regional development stages and governance investment structures. Realizing this well-being effect calls for the following differentiated policies: Promoting technology diffusion and commercialization in the innovation-mature east region, establishing transition funds and technology exchange platforms in the central region to offset restructuring costs, and strengthening technological absorptive capacity in the west region. At the national level, reinforcing both pollution control investment and fiscal environmental expenditure can amplify the moderating effects that channel green technology innovation into tangible population well-being improvements under tightening ecological constraints.

Table of Content