Abstract: Zodiac preferences seem to be increasingly popular in our society. However, anecdotal evidence does not necessarily reflect an objective tendency. Using birth data from 1949-2008 in China, this paper applies the indices of age preference to testing preferences for Chinese Zodiac in fertility. Results show that at the national level whether for a single year, or a single Chinese Zodiac, or the whole twelve Chinese Zodiac, Zodiac preferences actually do not exist. Annual fluctuations in births are largely a result of changing population momentum built in the age structure. It is therefore important to overcome superstition of Chinese Zodiac, and to advocate the rational fertility concept in our society.

Keywords: Preference of Chinese Zodiac, Births, Indices of Age Preference

摘要： 人为选择特定生肖年份进行生育的现象似乎愈演愈烈,然而这种生肖偏好是否在我国客观存在?本文围绕这一问题,充分利用1949～2008年的出生人口数据,并借鉴人口统计学中的年龄准确性检验指数来检验我国生肖偏好的存在性。结果显示,从全国宏观层面上,无论是单一年份、单一生肖还是十二生肖整体都不存在生肖偏好,出生人口规模的波动更多是由于人口惯性的影响。因此,破除生肖偏好的迷信,引导正确的生育观具有重要的现实意义。

关键词: 生肖偏好, 出生人口, 年龄准确性检验指数