Abstract: Using the Solow growth theory and a modified Cobb-Douglas production function which contains human capital,this paper analyzes the impact of population aging and population growth on economic growth.Theoretical analysis shows that both population aging and population growth have negative influence on economic growth.Empirical models on the basis of theoretical analysis are constructed and China′s provincial panel data from 1990-2008 for empirical test are collected.Model results correspond to the results of theoretical analysis.The research also shows that:(1) initial GDP per capita has negative effect on economic growth,indicating conditional convergence in China′s regional economic growth;(2) human capital investment,saving rate and labor force participation rate all have positive influence on economic growth.

Keywords: Population Aging, Population Growth, Economic Growth, Working-age Population, Dependency Ratio

摘要： 利用一个包含人力资本的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,从索洛增长理论入手,分析人口老龄化和人口增长率对经济增长的影响,理论模型的推理结果表明人口老龄化和人口增长对经济增长均产生不利影响。再根据理论模型的结果构造了人口老龄化和人口增长影响经济增长的实证模型,收集和使用中国1990～2008年的省级面板数据对理论模型的推理结果进行实证检验,证实了理论模型的推理结果。实证研究还表明:(1)初始的人均GDP对经济增长的影响为负,说明中国的区域经济发展出现了条件收敛的情形;(2)人力资本投资、储蓄率和劳动参与率对经济增长有着显著的正向促进作用。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 人口增长, 经济增长, 劳动年龄人口, 人口扶养比