Abstract: The 20 10  population census shows that  Hebei ’s fertility pattern is undergoing transition from “Fewer  and Early Childbearing ”to “Fewer and Late childbearing ”． Results from both qualitative and quan- titative  analysis show that the college expansion policy that has been carried out in China since 1999 is one of the major forces reshaping fertility  pattern in  Hebei． 34 ． 7 % of  the total  range  of  the  pattern  change  results from college expansion． From 2000  to 20 10 ，as  a  result  of  the  college  expansion ，the  mean  age  of  fertility has  increased by 0 ． 3 year ，the annual births have decreased by more than 60 thousand and total fertility rate has dropped by 0 ． 1 in  Hebei Province． More pronounced  effect  of  the  college  expansion  on fertility  pattern would be expected in the next ten years

Keywords: College Expansion, Transformation of Fertility Pattern, Population Development

摘要： 普查数据表明,进入21世纪以来,河北省育龄妇女的生育模式正由"少生、早育"型向"少生、晚育"型的现代生育模式转变。定性和定量分析均表明,1999年以来我国实施的高校扩招政策是推动育龄妇女生育模式发生显著变化的重要动因之一,在生育模式的变化幅度中,34.70%可用高校扩招的因素来加以解释。受高校扩招的影响作用,河北育龄妇女的平均生育年龄在2000～2010年间提高了0.3岁,年出生人口规模减少了6万人以上,TFR水平下降了0.10点。在未来10年间,高校扩招对生育模式的影响作用会更加显著。不仅如此,高校扩招的人口学效应是多方面的,对人口的中长期发展趋势具有深远的影响作用。

关键词: 高校扩招, 生育模式转变, 人口发展