Abstract: It is no doubt that low fertility is now shaping China's population dynamics，and China's
population policy is at a crossroad. Singapore，Japan，Korea and Taiwan are quite similar to China in
terms of cultural traditions and policy trajectory，and all choose pro-natal policies，yet the results were
not satisfactory. The procedures of their policy transition can provide reference for China's policy op-
tions. This paper conducts an in-depth analysis of the motivation，process and features of policy change
in these countries /regions，explains the influencing factors，and compares the characteristics and out-
comes of population policy before and after the change. On such a basis，this paper recommends Chi-
na to adopt gradual policy transition and reform the supplementary policies in line with population con-
trol in order to maintain suitable fertility level.

Keywords: Fertility, Population Policy, International Comparative Study

摘要： 低生育水平已成为中国人口的基本国情之一,中国的生育政策正处在一个十字路口。与中国历史文化传统上极为相似的新加坡、日本、韩国与台湾地区,在经过长时间的控制人口政策后,都选择了鼓励生育的政策,效果却不尽如人意。但它们的政策调整与转变过程可以为中国人口政策的选择提供参考与借鉴。文章着重对这些国家/地区政策调整的动因、过程、特点和效果进行分析,归纳其影响人口政策调整成败的相关因素。并将中国与这些国家(地区)政策调整时期的社会经济与人口指标进行对比,鉴于中国还存在着维持现有生育水平的因素,建议加快生育政策完善步伐,渐进式改革以控制人口增长为目标的各项配套政策,以使生育率保持在合理水平。

关键词: 生育率, 生育政策, 国际比较