Abstract: The purpose of investigating the Population Survival Coefficient of Arable Land Resources ( PSCL) of China is to examine the coordinated development relationship between land output benefit and population survival needs under the current urban and rural population structure. We build a general PSCL model and the first -order ( PSCL1 ) and second-order ( PSCL2 ) exponential PSCL models，with the PSCL high and low moderate line and the test standards，to conduct the statistical analysis of the national and provincial PSCL. Results show that China’s existing PSCL1 is higher and moderate test is adequate，but PSCL2 is lower and moderate test is inadequate. Under the current level of urbanization，the bottom line of 1.8 billion mu arable land could only meet the lower limit of the demand of the current urban and rural populations，and the balance of population-land relation would occur in 2030. China’s PSCL is affected by urban and rural population growth，urbanization level and land output benefit，which are the key factors to improve PSCL in China.

Keywords: Population Survival Coefficient of Arable Land Resources, Urban and Rural Population Structure, Urbanization Level, Bottom Line for the Preservation of Arable Land

摘要： 中国耕地资源人口生存系数立足于研究城乡人口结构条件下的耕地产出收益对城乡人口的容纳承载能力。文章构建耕地资源人口生存系数总模型，以及一阶、二阶分模型，提出耕地资源人口生存系数的适度上下限及其检验标准，并对全国及各省进行了统计分析。研究发现，中国现存耕地资源一阶人口生存系数较高，适度检验效果良好; 二阶人口生存系数较低，适度检验不足。在当前城镇化水平下，国家18 亿亩耕地红线接近满足现有城乡人口生存需求下限，未来国家18 亿亩耕地红线的人地生存指数平衡点约为2030 年。城乡人口增长率、城镇化水平、耕地产出收益与耕地资源人口生存系数存在关联，均是提高中国耕地资源人口生存系数并实现人地协调发展的重点调控指标。

关键词: 耕地资源人口生存系数, 城乡人口结构, 耕地红线, 城镇化水平