Table of Content

29 May 2014, Volume 38 Issue 3

Previous Issue    Next Issue

Fertility Intention of Rural and Urban Residents in China

Zhuang Yaer, Jiang Yu, Wang Zhili, Li Chengfu, Qi Jianan, Wang Hui, Liu Hongyan, Li Bohua, Qin Min

2014, 38(3):  3-13. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (338KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

In preparing for fertility policy adjustment and implementing the “Two-child Policy for Couples One of Which Has No Siblings”，a national fertility intention survey was conducted in 29 provinces in China in August 2013. Survey results indicate that，currently，the ideal number of children is 1.93 in China. The reported ideal number of children in regions with 1 child，1.5 and 2 children policies are 1.84，1.98 and 2.01 respectively. For the couples both of which have no siblings，one of which has siblings and both of which have siblings，the reported ideal numbers of children are 1.79，1.83 and 1.95 respectively. For the couples one of which has no siblings with one child，the reported ideal number of children is 1.81. The overall sex ratio of reported ideal numbers of children is 104 males per 100 females in China. The sex ratio is 128 for those whose ideal number of children is 1 and 102 for those whose ideal number of children is 2. For the couples one of which has no siblings with one child，59% are“uncertain”about the birth timing of next child，20.5% plan to give a birth in one year，12.1% plan to give a birth in two years and 8.4% plan to have one in three years. Adjustment of family planning policy will help narrow the gap between fertility intention and fertility behavior，and it is highly unlikely that a nation-wide birth heaping would occur if the“Two-child Policy for Couples One of Which Has No Siblings”is well implemented.

A Study of the Population Survival Coefficient of Arable Land Resources of China

Mu Huaizhong，Zhang Wenxiao

2014, 38(3):  14-27. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (420KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

The purpose of investigating the Population Survival Coefficient of Arable Land Resources ( PSCL) of China is to examine the coordinated development relationship between land output benefit and population survival needs under the current urban and rural population structure. We build a general PSCL model and the first -order ( PSCL1 ) and second-order ( PSCL2 ) exponential PSCL models，with the PSCL high and low moderate line and the test standards，to conduct the statistical analysis of the national and provincial PSCL. Results show that China’s existing PSCL1 is higher and moderate test is adequate，but PSCL2 is lower and moderate test is inadequate. Under the current level of urbanization，the bottom line of 1.8 billion mu arable land could only meet the lower limit of the demand of the current urban and rural populations，and the balance of population-land relation would occur in 2030. China’s PSCL is affected by urban and rural population growth，urbanization level and land output benefit，which are the key factors to improve PSCL in China.

Derivation and Application of the Urbanization Curve

Li Enping

2014, 38(3):  28-40. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (368KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

This paper conducts the derivation of the urbanization curves on different hypotheses，and corrects the misunderstanding on the relationship between urbanization parameters. Under the assumption of constant urban and rural growth difference in population ( URGD) ，the time-path curve of urbanization level，velocity and acceleration would separately show a rightward“S”shape，an inverted“U”shape，and an oblique“Z”shape. Also with this constant URGD assumption，all parameters are to be set as long as two arbitrary time points of urban and rural population data are given. There is no need to turn to the linear regression between the urbanization level and time variable，and the constraint on the saturated value of urbanization level does not exist. However，under the varying URGD assumption，the urbanization curve would show certain differentiation relying on the degree of variation on URGD. With the setting of an inverted“U” shape URGD，the peak of urbanization curve would be higher and obviously shift to the left，whereas with the setting of a linear decreased URGD，the urbanization curve would appear more variation dependent upon the initial value of URGD.

Family Migration Pattern in China

Sheng Yinan

2014, 38(3):  41-54. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (418KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

As a part of the world migration trends，China's family migration reflects the common grounds of family migration across the world，and also manifests the particularity resulting from household registration system and land system of China. Influenced by the traditional family culture，Chinese rural families tend to conduct whole family migration. But the household registration system and land system reduce the possibility of settling down in cities. This paper analyzes the interaction between culture and institution of Chinese family migration. Comparing China's family migration with the internal migration in Western countries during industrial revolution，there are many differences in decision-making cycle，decision-making process，migration direction，timing and order. In a macro perspective，Chinese family migration pattern can be described as being“cumulative causation broken”，while in a micro perspective，it involves“multiplicity and multistages migration strategy”with the mediating effect of culture and institution.

A Study on Implementation of Residence Permit System

Wang Yang

2014, 38(3):  55-67. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (280KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Residence permit system ( RPS) is a migrant population registration and management approach developed in some part of China. According to experiences from the cities of Shanghai，Chengdu and Zhengzhou，there are two registration patterns of RPS，and RPS is composed of three systematic elements，namely application requirement，rights for public service and application for permanent residence. Current situation suggests that there are three prominent problems in carrying out RPS，namely high application requirement，poor management techniques，and slow reform process. Therefore，further reform should aim at full coverage of RPS on the migrant population，lowering the requirement of application，and building the link-up mechanism between PRS and Household Registration System. It is also important to improve financing mechanism of public service，enhance the central government’s expenditure responsibility，and form dynamically updated database. China can improve the function of PRS based on highly developed information technology.

Impact of Birth Cohort Size on Education Achievement of Cohort Members

Ma Yan

2014, 38(3):  67-80. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (398KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Using data from China General Social Survey 2005，this paper explores the main and moderating effects of birth cohort size on education achievement of cohort members，from longitudinal and cohort perspectives. Results show that birth cohort size has significant impacts on education achievement of cohort members，and cohort members in larger cohort size have lower education achievement. However，the impacts of cohort size differ between males and females，and between urban and rural areas. These are the consequences of the discordant change between population reproduction and education capacity，as suggested by simulation decomposition in this paper of the net effect of birth cohort size. Therefore，it’s important to correctly seize the window of opportunity of policy response and adjustment.

Demographic Transition，Consumption Structure Disparities and Industrial Growth

Mao Rui, Xu Jianwei

2014, 38(3):  89-104. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (515KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

The strategic re-orientation of China’s economic growth is to expand domestic demand. Analyses of the Urban Household Survey data from 2002 to 2009 show that consumption structure significantly vary across different ages: a higher expenditure share on education，recreation，and clothing for the youth，a higher expenditure share on household facilities，articles，and services，transportation，communication，and residence for the middle aged，and a higher expenditure share on medicine and medical services for the elderly. The relation between age and consumption structure is very robust. After comparing the relative importance of age，period，and cohort effects，and controlling for other socio-economic factors，age appears to be the fundamental driver of consumption budget allocation. Based on population forecast from 2015 to 2030，it is found that population aging will have a significant effect on domestic demand and industrial growth. It is imperative to direct industrial growth and make scientific industrial policies in accordance with demographic transition for a stable，sustainable，and healthy economic growth in China.

Hot Issues in Demographic Studies and Distribution of Authors in China in Recent Years:

Zhao Junfang， Wang Ti

2014, 38(3):  104-112. 

Asbtract ( )   PDF (183KB) ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Based on the data of demographic studies from leading journals in CSSCI database ( 2010-2012) in China，this paper conducts statistical analysis on keywords，authors，institutions and cited literatures using CiteSpace，an information system to explore current research status and developing trend of demography in China. Results show that recent academic attention has focused on issues such as family planning policy and population growth，economic growth and human capital，population aging and its influencing factors，and floating population and urbanization. Classical literatures popularly cited are“A Study on Children Left Behind”，“ Literature Review of Studies on Children Left Behind”， and “ Demographic Transition，Population Dividend，and Sustainability of Economic Growth: Minimum Employment As a Source of Economic Growth. ”. Besides，Center for Population and Development Studies at Renmin University of China，Institute of Population Research at Peking University，and School of Labor Economics at Capital University of Economics and Business are most important institutions in demographic research in China.