Abstract: Using data from China General Social Survey 2005，this paper explores the main and moderating effects of birth cohort size on education achievement of cohort members，from longitudinal and cohort perspectives. Results show that birth cohort size has significant impacts on education achievement of cohort members，and cohort members in larger cohort size have lower education achievement. However，the impacts of cohort size differ between males and females，and between urban and rural areas. These are the consequences of the discordant change between population reproduction and education capacity，as suggested by simulation decomposition in this paper of the net effect of birth cohort size. Therefore，it’s important to correctly seize the window of opportunity of policy response and adjustment.

Keywords: Birth Cohort, Cohort Size, Educational Achievement

摘要： 文章运用2005 年中国综合社会调查数据，从纵向和队列的角度考察了出生队列规模变动对队列成员教育成就影响的主效应和调节效应。结果表明，出生队列规模对队列成员教育成就存在显著影响，表现为规模较大队列成员的教育成就低于规模较小队列。这种影响也受到性别和城乡差异因素的调节，表现为出生队列规模对队列成员中男性和女性、非农业和农业成员的教育成就存在不同程度的影响。此外，通过模拟分析发现了出生队列规模对队列成员教育成就存在拉高或拉低效应。最后指出出生队列规模变动效应的存在是宏观上人口再生产节律与教育承载力变动不匹配的结果，应当准确把握社会政策回应和调整的机会窗口。

关键词: 出生队列, 队列规模变动, 教育成就