Abstract: The strategic re-orientation of China’s economic growth is to expand domestic demand. Analyses of the Urban Household Survey data from 2002 to 2009 show that consumption structure significantly vary across different ages: a higher expenditure share on education，recreation，and clothing for the youth，a higher expenditure share on household facilities，articles，and services，transportation，communication，and residence for the middle aged，and a higher expenditure share on medicine and medical services for the elderly. The relation between age and consumption structure is very robust. After comparing the relative importance of age，period，and cohort effects，and controlling for other socio-economic factors，age appears to be the fundamental driver of consumption budget allocation. Based on population forecast from 2015 to 2030，it is found that population aging will have a significant effect on domestic demand and industrial growth. It is imperative to direct industrial growth and make scientific industrial policies in accordance with demographic transition for a stable，sustainable，and healthy economic growth in China.

Keywords: Demographic Transition, Age Structure, Household Consumption, Industrial Structure

摘要： 扩大内需是我国经济发展的战略方向。对2002 ～ 2009 年城镇住户调查数据的分析表明，不同年龄居民的消费结构存在明显差异: 青少年的教育文化娱乐和衣着支出较高，成年人的家庭设备和服务、交通和通信以及居住支出较高，而老年人的食品和医疗保健支出较高。人口年龄结构和居民消费结构之间的各项关联非常稳健。通过判断年龄效应、时期效应和队列效应的相对重要性，并同时控制一系列社会和经济特征效应后发现，消费者年龄是消费结构的关键决定因素。利用2013 ～2030 年的人口预测数据推测发现，人口老龄化将对内需发展和产业结构产生重要影响。根据人口转型趋势把握产业发展方向并制定科学的产业政策，对我国经济稳定、持续、健康发展至关重要。

关键词: 人口转型, 年龄结构, 居民消费, 产业结构