Abstract: China has witnessed great volumes of migrant workers returning hometown in the past decade. Meanwhile, an increasing number of cities, especially the major migrant-receiving cities, started to encounter severe labor shortage. This study investigates whether the recent returning flows have selected migrants of higher human capital and thus contributed to a significant loss of human capital in those traditional hosting areas. The results suggest that migrants with higher education have been less likely to return hometown, and they remain so even today. Nevertheless, male migrants having agricultural working skills are increasingly more likely to return hometown recently. Yet, the impact of health condition on returning decision is rather complex. There have always been migrants with deteriorated health condition returning home. This study concludes that migrant workers make their decision to return or not return rationally according to their human capital and comparative advantage. To date, the returning flows of migrants have not resulted in a significant loss of human capital, albeit it might have contributed significantly to labor shortage, in many cities.

Keywords: Rural-Urban Migration, Returning Flow, Labor Shortage, Returning Behavior, Returning Plan

摘要： 文章利用2010年中国妇女社会地位调查数据，考察了20世纪末以来农村外出务工人员的返乡决策与人力资本的关系。研究发现 近30年来，接受过较高教育的流动者返乡的可能性平均更低，这一模式在各时期保持相对稳定。尽管如此， 近年来， 拥有农业生产技术的男性流动者更倾向于返乡，且相应效应不断增强。健康状况对流动者返乡决策的影响较为复杂； 各时期因健康状况变差而“被动”返乡的情况在不同程度上持续发生。文章认为， 流动者往往根据自身人力资本的比较优势决定是否返乡。到目前为止返乡潮”并未引发人力资本较高的流动者选择性地回流，其对传统人口流入地“用工荒”的影响更多地表现为劳动力数量短缺程度的加剧，而非优质人力资本的流失。

关键词: 乡城流动, 返乡潮, 用工荒, 返乡行为, 返乡打算