Abstract: This study examine strends in the marriage squeeze in Taiwan using the theoretical redundant ratio of male births and sex ratio at marriage( MR) with Taiwan’s population data from 1970 to 2014．MR in Taiwan kept increasing and the theoretical redundant ratio of male births had a modest rise from 1970 to 2014，implying that Taiwan’s male marriage squeeze would be also on the rise in the future．Comparative analysis shows that the theoretical redundant ratio of male births in Taiwan was lower，but the MR was higher than those in the mainland from 1987 to 2013．Our analysis suggests that marriage match is a result of both the individual subjective preferences and the objective condition of the marriage market structure．Macro structure of sex and age are the predisposing factors affecting marriage squeeze，while the fundamental factors affecting marriage squeeze are family background，sociocultural context，and economic and job conditions．

Keywords:  Taiwan’s Population, Theoretical Redundant Ratio of Male Births, Sex Ratio at Marriage, Marriage Squeeze

摘要： 文章基于中国台湾1970~2014年的人口数据,运用理论男婴富余比与婚配性别比法,测算台湾地区婚姻挤压的变化趋势。研究发现,1970~2014年台湾地区的婚配性别比MR值逐年增大,同时,理论男婴富余比呈小幅度上升的走势,表明未来台湾地区的男性婚姻挤压也呈上升趋势。中国台湾与大陆的比较分析表明,1987~2013年台湾地区的理论男婴富余比小于大陆值,但婚配性别比MR值高于大陆值。文章利用台湾地区和大陆历年的出生性别比,检验宏观人口因素对未来初婚市场婚姻挤压的影响,发现婚姻匹配是个体主观偏好和客观婚姻市场共同作用的结果;宏观的性别和年龄结构是影响婚姻挤压的前置因素,个体的家庭与社会文化背景、经济基础、工作情况等社会资本才是影响婚姻挤压的根本原因。

关键词: 台湾人口, 理论男婴富余比, 婚配性别比, 婚姻挤压