Abstract:

Based on data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey and treating fertility as a unique event in women’s life，this paper explores the impact of fertility behavior-number of children，gender structure，and fertility timing and intervals on elderly women`s health，and estimates the healthy survival time of elderly women by using the accelerated failure time model．Results show that fertility behavior significantly influences elderly women’s health．In a health perspective，more children would reduce happiness．Less number of children，appropriate age at childbearing and longer birth intervals significantly increase healthy survival time．The paper further discusses the mechanisms through which fertility behavior impact elderly women’s health，and points out that public policy should pay more attention to the potential impact of changing fertility behavior on women’s health in the context of implementing a two-child policy．

Keywords:  Elderly Woman, Fertility Behavior, Accelerated Failure Time Mode, Healthy Survival Time

摘要：

立足于老龄化和生育政策调整的背景,文章利用中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,通过建立加速时效时间模型,系统分析了包含子女数量、性别结构、生育时间和生育期长等在内的生育行为对女性进入老年时期的健康的影响,并进一步在个体层面上测算了老年女性的健康生存时间。实证结果发现,生育行为对老年女性的健康会产生重要影响。从健康角度来看,生男生女都一样;而多子不但不会多福,还会降低老年女性的健康福利;同时,初育年龄太大或太小都将不利于女性老年时期的健康水平,而生育期延长会显著提升女性老年时期的健康水平。文章还探讨了生育行为对老年女性健康的影响机制,认为在目前生育政策调整的背景下应关注生育行为改变对女性健康的潜在影响。 

关键词: 老年女性, 生育行为, 加速失效时间模型, 健康生存时间