Population Research ›› 2017, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 63-73.

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New Features and Influencing Mechanisms of Migrant Long-term Residence Tendency

Yang Xue1Wei Hongying2   

  1. 1Northeast Asian Studies CollegeJilin University2Northeast Asian Studies CollegeJilin University
  • Online:2017-09-29 Published:2018-01-04

流动人口长期居留意愿的新特征及影响机制

杨雪1魏洪英2   

  1. 1吉林大学东北亚研究院人口资源与环境研究所; 2魏洪英吉林大学东北亚研究院

Abstract:          Based on the dynamic monitoring data collected by the National Health and Family Planning Commission on floating population in 2015this paper applies logistic regression model to analyze migrant long-term residence tendency in citiesThe results show that migrant long-term residence tendency is influenced by their demographichuman capitaland economic characteristicsthrough which this migrant group has demonstrated a new feature of differentiationImprovement of education enhances individuals long-term residence tendencyJunior college education being the dividing pointthe higher educated migrants present a stronger tendency of residenceThe increase of income level has a significantly effect on the residential preference of the entire groupIncome of 6000 yuan being the dividing pointthe high-income group of migrants have a stronger long-term residence tendency than the low-income groupWhen added into the model the housing expenditurethe increased housing expenditure elevates migrant residential preferenceHoweverit also has a negative effect on the residential preference of the high-income group

Keywords: Migrants , Long-term Residence Tendency , Duration of Stay

摘要:       文章根据 2015 年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据运用二元 Logistic 模型对流动人口在城市的长期居留意愿进行分析发现个体特征人力资本特征经济特征共同影响流动人口在城市的长期居留意愿并使得这一群体内部出现了分化的新特征研究表明: 教育程度的提高在普遍增强个体留城意愿的同时以大学专科学历为界限高学历者呈现出更加强烈的居留意愿收入水平的增加显著影响了整个群体的居留意愿6000 元收入水平为分界点表现为高收入流动人口的城市居留意愿远大于中低收入者在追加了住房支出变量后发现伴随着住房支出的增加提高了流动人口的城市居留意愿,但同时又对高收入流动人口的长期居留意愿表现出抑制作用

关键词: 流动人口 , 长期居留意愿 , 流动时间