Abstract: Using cross-country panel data this paper analyzes the relationship between populationaging and economic growth,and further examines the impact of population aging on the probability of avoiding the middle-income trap. We find that there is a significant negative relationship between population aging and economic growth. The increase of the overall dependency ratio would decrease the probability of avoiding the middle-income trap. The impact of the old-age dependency ratio on the probability of being fallen into in the middle-income trap is not significant. Enhancement of human capital and technology progress would increase the probability of avoiding the middle-income trap. Therefore,measures should be taken to cope with the negative effect of aging on the economic growth in order to avoid the middle-income trap. These measures include enhancing the level of human capital and increasing investment on research and development.

摘要： 人口老龄化水平不断提高会阻碍一个国家经济增长而陷入“中等收入陷阱”吗? 文章在检验人口老龄化对经济增长影响基础上,进一步分析人口老龄化对中等收入阶段跨越概率影响。研究发现:第一,人口老龄化对经济增长具有显著负向影响;第二,人口总抚养比水平的提高会显著降低一个国家或地区中等收入向高收入阶段跨越概率,而老年抚养比的提高并不能显著降低一个国家或地区中等收入向高收入阶段跨越概率;第三,提高人力资本和全要素生产率有助于加大一个国家或地区中等收入阶段向高收入阶段跨越概率。 因此,中国应提升人力资本水平,加大研发投入,弥补人口老龄化对经济增长的负面影响,

关键词: 人口老龄化, 经济增长, 中等收入陷阱, 人力资本, 系统 GMM, CUI