Abstract: In the context of differences in demographic and economic urbanization levels across the provinces of China,the impact of population ageing on the upgrading of industrial structure presents unbalanced features.Utilizing panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1998 to 2015,this paper conducts the panel regression threshold model to demonstrate the threshold effect of ageing on the upgrading of industrial structure.The empirical results show that there is a threshold effect on the impact of ageing on the upgrading of industrial structure.When the level of urbanization is greater than the threshold,population ageing promotes the upgrading of the industrial structure;otherwise it prevents the upgrading of the industrial structure.When population urbanization is considered as the threshold,only Beijing and Shanghai have passed the threshold,while the remaining 28 provinces are under the line.When economic urbanization is treated as the threshold,there are four provinces,i.e.,Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,and Guangdong,have crossed the threshold,while the remaining 26 provinces are below the standard.

Keywords: Population Aging ,  , Urbanization ,  , Upgrade of Industrial Structure ,  , Panel Threshold Regression

摘要： 随着我国各省份全面进入老龄化社会，由于各省域人口城镇化和经济城镇化水平发展差异，人口老龄化对产业结构升级影响呈现出不均衡性的特征。文章通过利用1998~2015 年我国30个省份的面板数据，采用面板回归门槛模型实证老龄化对产业结构升级影响的门槛效应。实证结果显示：老龄化产业对结构升级影响存在显著门槛效应，当城镇化水平大于门槛值时，老龄化促进产业结构升级；反之，老龄化阻碍产业结构升级。以人口城镇化为门槛变量时，迈过门槛的只有北京和上海，且迈过平均人力资本积累门槛值后的老龄化对产业结构升级正效应更大，其余28个省份均未迈过门槛值。以经济城镇化为门槛变量时，迈过门槛的有北京、上海、天津、广东4个省市，其余26个省份均未迈过门槛值。

关键词: 人口老龄化 , 城镇化 , 产业结构升级 , 面板门槛回归