Adjustment on Retirement Age and Changes of Human Capital in China, 2015 to 2050

Population Research ›› 2019, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (1): 102-112.

Adjustment on Retirement Age and Changes of Human Capital in China, 2015 to 2050

Yeung WeiJun Jean¹，Feng Qiushi²，Wang Zhenglian³，Zeng Yi ⁴

Yeung WeiJun Jean¹ Department of Sociology and Asian Research Institute, Director of Centre for Family and Population Research (CFPR), National University of Singapore; Feng Qiushi², Department of Sociology, Centre for Family and Population Research (CFPR), National University of Singapore; Wang Zhenglian³ , China Population and Development Research Center, Center for Population Health and Aging, Duke University; Zeng Yi ⁴, Center for the Study of Aging and Human Development, Duke University, Professor, Raissun Institute for Advanced Studies, Peking University.

Online:2019-01-29 Published:2019-03-07
About author:Yeung WeiJun Jean is Provost's Chair Professor, Department of Sociology and Asian Research Institute, Director of Centre for Family and Population Research (CFPR), National University of Singapore; Feng Qiushi is Associate Professor, Department of Sociology, Centre for Family and Population Research (CFPR), National University of Singapore; Wang Zhenglian is Research Fellow, China Population and Development Research Center, Senior Research Scientist, Center for Population Health and Aging, Duke University; Zeng Yi is Professor, Center for the Study of Aging and Human Development, Duke University, Professor, Raissun Institute for Advanced Studies, Peking University.

延迟退休年龄对中国人力资本的影响

杨李唯君¹，冯秋石²，王正联³，曾毅⁴

杨李唯君¹，新加坡国立大学社会学系和亚洲研究所讲座，家庭与人口研究中心；冯秋石²，新加坡国立大学社会学系；王正联³，中国人口与发展研究中心, 杜克大学人口与健康研究中心；曾毅⁴，北京大学国家发展研究院，北京大学瑞意高等研究所，杜克大学医学院老龄与人类发展研究中心。

作者简介:杨李唯君，新加坡国立大学社会学系和亚洲研究所讲座教授，家庭与人口研究中心主任；冯秋石，新加坡国立大学社会学系副教授；王正联，中国人口与发展研究中心特聘研究员, 杜克大学人口与健康研究中心资深研究科学家；曾毅，北京大学国家发展研究院教授，北京大学瑞意高等研究所首席科学家，杜克大学医学院老龄与人类发展研究中心教授。
基金资助:
本研究是NUSGlobal Asia Institute Research Grant (CARC2012001, PI: WeiJun Jean Yeung)的资助项目。

Abstract

Abstract: As China continues to age rapidly, whether the country should adjust the official retirement age, and if so, when and how, are currently major policy concerns. We examine the impact of postponing the retirement age on the human capital of China in the next four decades. Two critical aspects of human capital-health and education-are incorporated to account for the quality of the work force. Our projections reveal the impact of nine scenarios on the Chinese labor force in the next few decades, highlighting the changes in “the high human capital workforce”-those with good health and education. We show substantial impact with added work force ranging from 28 to 92 million per year depending on which scenarios are implemented. Furthermore, the retained workers are increasingly better educated. The gain in female workers is particularly significant, reaping the benefits of the education expansion since the 1990s.

Keywords: Retirement Age, Human Capital, Labour Force, Population Projection

摘要： 退休年龄是否应该延迟以及如何延迟是目前社会普遍关注的政策议题。文章考察9种不同退休年龄延迟方案下中国劳动力市场从2015~2050年的变化，关注人力资本的规模和质量，并特别关注 “高人力资本劳动力”（有高中及以上学历并且身体健康的劳动年龄人口），系统研究延迟退休年龄将如何影响中国人力资本。预测结果显示，相比保持目前退休年龄不变的基准方案，不同退休年龄延迟方案在人力资本方面有着不同效果，所增加的劳动力其范围大约在年均2800万人至9200万人之间。另外，由于20世纪90年代末以来的高等教育扩张，延迟退休年龄所增加劳动力的教育水平将普遍较高，这一点在女性群体中表现得更为显著。

关键词: 退休年龄, 人力资本, 劳动力, 人口预测

Yeung WeiJun Jean，Feng Qiushi，Wang Zhenglian，Zeng Yi .

Adjustment on Retirement Age and Changes of Human Capital in China, 2015 to 2050

[J]. Population Research, 2019, 43(1): 102-112.

杨李唯君，冯秋石，王正联，曾毅. 延迟退休年龄对中国人力资本的影响[J]. 人口研究, 2019, 43(1): 102-112.

[1]	Yu Xiao, Wang Qihui. High-quality Population Development, New Human Capital, and High-quality Employment [J]. Population Research, 2023, 47(5): 59-73.
[2]	Dai Zhixin, Du Peng, Dong Junhan. Re-examining the Old-age Dependency Ratio and Ageing Population in China [J]. Population Research, 2023, 47(3): 94-107.
[3]	Liu Jiaqiang, Huang Liyun, Sheng Wei, Tang Daisheng. The Spatial Effect of Human Capital Agglomeration in China: Siphon or Diffusion? [J]. Population Research, 2023, 47(2): 112-128.
[4]	Dai Qiongyao, Liu Jiaqiang, Tang Daisheng. Human Capital Dividend and Its Spatial Effects in China [J]. Population Research, 2021, 45(5): 33-48.
[5]	Liu Tao, Wang Dezheng. Education, Work Experience, and Job Quality of Migrant Workers [J]. Population Research, 2021, 45(4): 85-99.
[6]	Ji Yun, Sun Juanjuan . Influencing Factors of Elder Abuse in China：The Mediating Effects of Health Human Capital and Social Capital [J]. Population Research, 2021, 45(2): 75-88.
[7]	Wang Xiaolu,Yang Dongliang. Can Population Agglomeration Improve Regional Individual Human Capital? [J]. Population Research, 2020, 44(4): 102-115.
[8]	Zhang Xianling,Zhai Zhenwu,Tao Tao. Trends and Patterns of Negative Population Growth in China [J]. Population Research, 2020, 44(3): 3-20.
[9]	Liu Jinju. How Large is the Motherhood Penalty in Urban China? [J]. Population Research, 2020, 44(2): 33-43.
[10]	Wang Jinying,Li Zhuangyuan and Li Tianran. Impact of Central Cities on Regional Human Capital Accumulation [J]. Population Research, 2018, 42(3): 9-23.
[11]	Meng Xiangjing and Jiang Kaidi. The Impact of Urbanization on China’s Future Rural and Urban Age Structure [J]. Population Research, 2018, 42(2): 39-53.
[12]	Fan Hongmin and Mu Huaizhong. Will Population Ageing Impede the Escape of Middle-Income Trap? [J]. Population Research, 2018, 42(1): 31-43.
[13]	Li Fei，Zhong Zhangbao. Human Capital, Class Status, Identity and Migrant Workers’Permanent Migration Intention [J]. Population Research, 2017, 41(6): 58-70.
[14]	Zhai Zhenwu，Li Long，Chen Jiaju，Chen Wei. Applications of Population Projection in the PADIS-INT: Comparative Study on MORTPAK, Spectrum and PADIS-INT [J]. Population Research, 2017, 41(6): 84-97.
[15]	Zhang Juwei, Cai Yifei. Forecasting China’s Labor Supply and Demand and the Unemployment Structure in the 13th Five-Year-Plan Period [J]. Population Research, 2016, 40(1): 38-56.