Abstract: The life expectancy of the older people had increased steadily during 1998-2013 in Shanghai, but their disability-free life expectancy had changed from an increasing trend in 1998-2008 to a decreasing trend in 2008-2013. The period of disability had expanded in 1998-2003, then compressed in 2003-2008, and finally expanded again in 2008-2013 as their lifespan increased. The increase of disability-free life expectancy in 1998-2008 was mainly driven by the decline in mortality while the decline of disability-free life expectancy in 2008-2013 was largely due to an increase of disability rates, which offset the increasing effects of mortality reduction. The social and economic development, the advance of medical technology, and the practice of social security system in Shanghai are the main factors leading to the changes of the disability-free life expectancy. This transition from increase to decrease of disability-free life expectancy of the older people have been consistent with the rapid increase of per capita health expenditure in Shanghai since 2008.

Keywords: Healthy Life Expectancy, Disability-Free Life Expectancy, Compression of Morbidity, Expansion of Morbidity, Registered Elderly in Shanghai

摘要： 上海市户籍老年人的余寿在1998~2013年间不断延长，但是生活自理预期寿命则由1998~2008年的增长转变为2008~2013年的下降。生活自理预期寿命占余寿的比重在1998~2003年遵循“功能残障扩张模式”，2003~2008年则遵循“功能残障压缩模式”，2008~2013年又遵循“功能残障扩张模式”。1998~2008年生活自理预期寿命的上升主要是死亡率的下降造成的，其中1998~2003年生活自理率的下降作用被死亡率的下降作用抵消，2003~2008年则是死亡率下降和生活自理率上升共同促进其增长。2008~2013年生活自理预期寿命的下降主要是由生活自理率的下降导致的，其抵消了死亡率下降带来的增长。上海社会经济的发展、医疗技术的进步及医疗保障体制的实施等均影响老年人生活自理预期寿命的变动。上海2008年以来人均医疗保健费用支出的飞速增长可能是生活自理预期寿命转变的体现。

关键词: 健康预期寿命, 生活自理预期寿命, 功能残障扩张假说, 功能残障压缩假说, 上海户籍老年人