Table of Content

29 January 2020, Volume 44 Issue 1

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Population Cushion in Economic Development: Existence and Theoretical Framework

Wang Jinying, Liu Yanhua

2020, 44(1):  3-18. 

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China's population will start to drop and age rapidly in the third decade of the 21st century. This negative population growth brings various challenges to China's future economic development. To sustain the economic growth and development, it is necessary to explore theoretical basis for the driving forces and new paths for further economic development. Reflecting on the limitations of existing theories of population and economic development and drawing on their enlightenments and metaphors, this research demonstrates how population size interacts with economic development. Further, this study proposes the concept and theoretical framework of population cushion, which can act as a new driving force of Chinas economic development in the context of negative population growth in the future.

From Rural China to Migrating China: Rethinking Migration Transition in China

Duan Chengrong, Lyu Lidan, Wang Han, and Xie Donghong

2020, 44(1):  19-25. 

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The low spatial population mobility has been the demographic characteristic of Rural China for thousands of years. In the past 40 years, China has experienced and is experiencing the transition from a Rural China with few migrations to a Migrating China with large-scale and high-frequency migrations. The historical transition from the Rural era to the Migration era is realized in a short period of 40 years, which has its internal mechanism, including the reform of the land system, the change of population structure, the development of urban market economy and the loosening of migration policies. This will enable high population spatial mobility to be continued into a long time in the future. In adjusting to a Migrating China, relevant cultural construction and cultural adaptation play an important role. It is necessary to gradually move from a Static Culture adapted to Rural China for thousands of years to a Dynamic Culture adapted to Migrating China.

Decomposition of Changes in Health-adjusted Life Expectancy in China, 1990-2013

Chen He

2020, 44(1):  26-38. 

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Using data from GBD 2013, this study estimates the changes in health-adjusted life expectancy at birth (HALE₀) between 1990 and 2013 in China, analyzes its influencing factors, and, for the first time, decomposes these changes into the contribution of 302 diseases and injuries. During this period, HALE₀ increased by 7.39 years, ranging from 2.48 years in Hebei to 10.81 years in Tibet.Provinces with low HALE₀ at base year (1990)and high human development index values were more likely to witness rapid increase in HALE₀.Communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases, and injuries have contributed 3.17 years, 3.13 years and 1.10 years, respectively, to the growth of HALE₀. The five top and positive causes to HALE₀ changes include COPD, lower respiratory infections, stroke, preterm birth complications, and diarrheal diseases; and the five top and negative causes to HALE₀ changes include diabetes mellitus, low back and neck pain, chronic kidney disease, interstitial lung disease and medication overuse headache. Mortality reduction was the predominant driver for population health improvement, accounting for 95.26% of HALE₀ changes. This has resulted in a prolonged life expectancy with disability.

Changing Disability-Free Life Expectancy of the Registered Elderly in Shanghai, 1998-2013

Li Qiang, Dong Junhan, and Li Jie

2020, 44(1):  39-53. 

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The life expectancy of the older people had increased steadily during 1998-2013 in Shanghai, but their disability-free life expectancy had changed from an increasing trend in 1998-2008 to a decreasing trend in 2008-2013. The period of disability had expanded in 1998-2003, then compressed in 2003-2008, and finally expanded again in 2008-2013 as their lifespan increased. The increase of disability-free life expectancy in 1998-2008 was mainly driven by the decline in mortality while the decline of disability-free life expectancy in 2008-2013 was largely due to an increase of disability rates, which offset the increasing effects of mortality reduction. The social and economic development, the advance of medical technology, and the practice of social security system in Shanghai are the main factors leading to the changes of the disability-free life expectancy. This transition from increase to decrease of disability-free life expectancy of the older people have been consistent with the rapid increase of per capita health expenditure in Shanghai since 2008.

Institutional Change and Household Structure in Contemporary Urban China

Wang Yuesheng

2020, 44(1):  54-69. 

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Data from the four population censuses since 1982 reveals the state and changes of China's urban household structure in different institutional environments. In the early stage of the reform and opening up when the planned economy system was dominant, household nuclearization tended to be prominent according to the 1982 and 1990 census data. Relaxation of the migration policy led to reduction of single-parent households, and the birth control policy promoted growth of couples households. Under the socialist market economy system after 1992, the types of household registration of urban population became diversified，and the welfare housing system began to transform into commercialized housing system. Based on the 2000 census, nuclear household continue to be of a high proportion，but the tendency of household nuclearization is restrained. After 2000, the birth control policy, elderly social security and housing reform have had profound impacts on urban household structure.

The Environment of Distressed Family and Child Health: Patterns and Determinants

Du Benfeng, Wang Xuan, and Geng Rui

2020, 44(1):  70-84. 

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Based on the data of national sampling survey on health status of children from distressed families in China, this study explores the differences in child health caused by distressed environmental factors and its relative contribution. The article uses the Shapley value decomposition method to analyze the vulnerabilities and key areas of healthy development of distressed family children. The results suggest that the growth retardation rate and the proportion of insomnia and loneliness of children is higher in distressed families than in ordinary families; children in distressed families are more vulnerable to injury and bullying in school, and the children in incarcerated families are the most likely to be hurt. Family relationship is the most important factor affecting health of children in distressed families. The influence of guardian quality and family economic environment on the health of children in ordinary families is higher than that in distressed families, and the health status of guardians has the greatest contribution to the self-rated health of children in ordinary families.

Parental Preferences for Childcare Services for Children under Age 3 in Urban China: A Choice Experiment Approach

Gao Chenzhuo, Yang Xueyan, and Jing Wen

2020, 44(1):  85-98. 

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Based on choice experiment data of 464 parents in Xi'an, Shaanxi Province, this research analyzes parental preferences and willingness to pay for childcare services for children under age 3. The results show that, with assistance from grandparents, young couples are the main childcare providers in most urban families. Families have to take the heavy burden of raising very young children due to the lack of public childcare services. In the choice experiment, parents prefer to purchase childcare services and tend to choose those providing early education, offering flexible service hours, supported by the government, equipped with video monitoring, but also charging low prices and locating in short distances. The willingness to pay for video monitoring is the highest, followed by service contents, type of childcare centers, service hours and distance from home. According to these demands, we suggest that childcare services should focus on improving quality, integrating childcare and education, providing general welfare and community services.

Bilateral Effects of Ageing on FDI: Spillover or Extrusion?

Yang Xi,Wang Xueyi

2020, 44(1):  99-112. 

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With the globalization of economy, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) plays an active role in the development of regional economy. An important question is whether population ageing would affect the location choice of FDI. In this paper, we use a bilateral stochastic analysis framework to integrate the bilateral effects of ageing on FDI into a unified framework, and compare the net effect by decomposing the effect into positive and negative ones. We find that ageing has two kinds of effects on FDI: the promoting and the extrusion effects. The positive effect promotes 23.43% of FDI growth, while the extrusion effect reduces 44.63% of FDI growth. Combining both effects, ageing significantly inhibites FDI inflow. The results are significant in different time intervals and regions. At the same time, the heterogeneity analysis of ageing and city scale shows that the role of ageing in extruding FDI increases with the rise of ageing level and decreases with the expansion of city scale.