Abstract: With the globalization of economy, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) plays an active role in the development of regional economy. An important question is whether population ageing would affect the location choice of FDI. In this paper, we use a bilateral stochastic analysis framework to integrate the bilateral effects of ageing on FDI into a unified framework, and compare the net effect by decomposing the effect into positive and negative ones. We find that ageing has two kinds of effects on FDI: the promoting and the extrusion effects. The positive effect promotes 23.43% of FDI growth, while the extrusion effect reduces 44.63% of FDI growth. Combining both effects, ageing significantly inhibites FDI inflow. The results are significant in different time intervals and regions. At the same time, the heterogeneity analysis of ageing and city scale shows that the role of ageing in extruding FDI increases with the rise of ageing level and decreases with the expansion of city scale.

Keywords: Population Ageing, FDI, Bilateral Effects

摘要： 伴随着经济发展的全球化，外商直接投资（FDI）在区域经济发展中起着积极的作用，而在影响FDI的众多因素中，人口老龄化是否会对FDI的区位选择产生影响呢？利用双边随机分析框架，将人口老龄化影响FDI的双边效应纳入统一框架，在分解正负效应的基础上比较净效应的大小，从而更准确地识别人口老龄化对FDI的影响。结果发现，人口老龄化对FDI具有溢出和挤出两种效应，其中溢出效应促进了23.43%的FDI增长，挤出效应则降低了44.63%的FDI增长。在正负效应的共同作用下，人口老龄化显著抑制了FDI的流入，这一结果在样本年份的中后期及不同区域内均显著存在。同时，根据人口老龄化和城市规模的异质性分析发现，人口老龄化挤出FDI的作用随着老龄化水平的提高而增强，随着城市规模的扩大而降低。

关键词: 人口老龄化, FDI, 双边效应