Abstract: Based on the 2000 and 2010 census data, this paper uses a modified gravity model to empirically examine the impact of dialect on inter-provincial migration in China. Our results show that sharing a common dialect has a significant impact on interprovincial migration. Migrant workers tend to move to places with similar dialects and cultural background. We also find that the influence of dialect has decreased over time, and the impact of distance has also dropped due to the improvements in transportation infrastructures. Moreover, we find that the popularity of dialect constrains the inter-provincial labor migration, while the prevalence of mandarin largely eliminates the communication barriers, facilitating the reallocation of labor. Our results suggest that promoting mandarin would encourage population migration and improve the allocation of human capital across regions.

Keywords: Labor Migration, Gravity Model, Dialect, Mandarin

摘要： 使用2000年和2010年全国人口普查数据，以出生地和居住地的不同来定义人口迁移，在引力模型的框架下实证考察方言使用区域对人口迁移的影响。结果表明：共同方言区是影响人口跨省迁移的重要因素，劳动者倾向于向方言相近、文化背景相似的地方迁移；但随着时间的推移，方言对人口迁移的影响在降低，距离对人口迁移的影响也因交通基础设施的完善而降低。当引入方言使用率和普通话普及率等指标考察语言对人口迁移的作用机制时，以方言为代表的文化差异会抑制劳动力的省际迁移，普及普通话能够消除不同省份劳动者的交流障碍，有利于跨省的人口迁移。因此，推广普通话对促进中国的省际人口迁移、优化人力资本的空间配置具有重要意义。

关键词: 人口迁移, 引力模型, 方言, 普通话