Abstract: As the quantitative demographic dividend is diminishing, improving labor quality and individual human capital become the key to maintain the highquality development of China's economy. In addition to increasing labor supply, population agglomeration is an efficient way of improving individual human capital through the mechanisms of knowledge spillover and employment competition. Based on the theoretical model of urban individual human capital and population agglomeration, this paper empirically examines the impact of population agglomeration on individual human capital using Chinese provincial data from 2000 to 2015. Population agglomeration could significantly improve urban individual human capital, in a sense that a higher degree of population agglomeration is associated with a larger effect on individual human capital. These findings are consistent with the agglomerative economics theory. The results of panel threshold regression show that the effect of population agglomeration on individual human capital could be significantly enhanced when knowledge spillover and employment competition exceed the threshold value.

Keywords: Population Agglomeration, Human Capital, Knowledge Spillover, Panel Threshold Regression Model

摘要： 在数量型人口红利日益消失的背景下，提升劳动力质量与个体人力资本水平成为中国经济高质量发展的关键。人口集聚除了能够增加地区劳动力数量外，还能通过知识溢出与就业竞争两个机制对个体人力资本水平提升产生重要影响。在构建个体人力资本与人口集聚关系的数理模型的基础上，以2000~2015年中国省级数据为样本，实证研究人口集聚对个体人力资本水平的影响，发现人口集聚能显著提高个体的人力资本水平，并且伴随着人口集聚程度的不断提高，人口集聚对个体人力资本水平的提升作用越大，这与收益递增的经济集聚理论相一致。建立面板门限回归模型，发现当知识溢出水平与就业竞争强度超过某一门限值后，人口集聚对个体人力资本水平的提升作用会显著增大，体现出知识溢出与就业竞争对个体人力资本水平提升的重要价值。

关键词: 人口集聚, 人力资本, 知识溢出, 面板门限回归模型