Abstract: This paper introduces the family life cycle theory to decompose the impact of the destination city's characteristics on the settlement intention of floating population. It is found that housing affordability has the greatest crowding-out effect on the settlement intention of floating people in family formation period; public services have the most significant pulling effect on the settlement intention of floating people in family expansion period; social integration has the largest pulling effect on family shrinkage. In family formation period, the crowding-out effect of housing affordability is greater for the low-educated and low-income floating population; in family expansion period, the pulling effect of public services has indistinguishable impact on the high & low-educated or high & low-income groups; during family shrinkage period, the pulling effect of social integration has a stronger impact on low-educated and low-income floating population. Using family life cycle theory to study the group heterogeneity of the impact of the destination city on the settlement intention of the floating population helps implement the strategic deployment of “people-centered” new urbanization.

Keywords: Settlement Intention, Family Life Cycle, Housing Affordability, Public Services, Social Integration

摘要： 引入家庭生命周期理论对流动人口进行家庭异质性分解，检验家庭生命周期变量在流入城市对流动人口居留意愿影响中的调节作用。研究发现：住房可负担性对家庭形成期流动人口居留意愿的挤出效应更强；公共服务水平对家庭扩张期流动人口居留意愿的引力效应更强；社会融入度对家庭萎缩期流动人口居留意愿的引力效应更强；在家庭形成期，住房可负担性挤出效应对低学历、低收入流动人口的影响更大；在家庭扩张期，公共服务水平引力效应对高、低学历和高、低收入流动人口的影响没有显著差别；在家庭萎缩期，社会融入度引力效应对低学历、低收入流动人口的影响更大。使用家庭生命周期理论研究流入城市对流动人口居留意愿影响的群体异质性，有助于实施“以人为核心”的新型城镇化战略。

关键词: 居留意愿, 家庭生命周期, 住房可负担性, 公共服务水平, 社会融入度