Abstract: Based on the data from 2017 national fertility survey, this paper analyzes patterns and determinants of fertility intention in China under the universal two-child policy. The survey suggests that womens average ideal number of children is 1.96 and the average number of intended children is 1.76. For women born in the 1990s and beyond, the number of children they intend to have is 1.70, while for women who have not yet had any children, their intended number of children is 1.60, both are lower than the current average, indicating that there is room for a further decline in the fertility in China. About 9.3 percent of women intend to have three or more children. Among women who have at least two children, the corresponding proportion of women whose first two are girls is 45.6 percent. The regional difference of the intended number of children is more apparent. Sex-selective abortion inhibits fertility intentions and reduces the number of birth, however, in the case of unsatisfactory sex composition of children and tendency to continue to have children, son preference plays a role in strengthening fertility intention and increasing the number of births.

Keywords: Fertility Intention, Idea Number of Children, Intended Number of Children, Son Preference

摘要： 利用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据，对妇女生育意愿状况及其影响因素进行了分析和探讨。2017年，中国育龄妇女的平均理想子女数为1.96，平均打算生育子女数为1.76。1990年代及以后出生的妇女平均打算生育子女数为1.70。现有1孩、尚未生育妇女的平均打算生育子女数分别为1.29、1.60，预示我国妇女的生育率存在着进一步下降的空间。打算生育3个孩子及以上的妇女比例为9.3%，前2个均为女孩的该比例为45.6%。31个地区平均理想子女数的方差为0.03，平均打算生育子女数的方差为0.07，打算生育子女数的地区差异更加明显。性别选择性人工流产抑制了生育意愿并减少了生育数量，但在未能达到满意的子女性别构成而倾向继续生育的情况下，男孩偏好起到了增强生育意愿和增加生育数量的作用。

关键词: 生育意愿, 理想子女数, 打算生育子女数, 男孩偏好