Population Research ›› 2021, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (1): 68-81.

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Fertility Intention of Chinese Women and Its Determinants under the Universal Two-Child Policy:Based on the 2017 National Fertility Survey

Zhuang Yaer1,Jiang Yu2,Li Bohua3   

  1. Zhuang Yaer1,China Population and Development Research Center,Research Institute of Social Construction of Beijing,Renmin University of China;Jiang Yu2 (Corresponding Author),China Population and Development Research Center;Li Bohua3,China Population and Development Research Center.
  • Online:2021-01-29 Published:2021-02-05
  • About author:Zhuang Yaer is Researcher,China Population and Development Research Center,Research Institute of Social Construction of Beijing,Renmin University of China;Jiang Yu (Corresponding Author) is Associate Researcher,China Population and Development Research Center;Li Bohua is Researcher,China Population and Development Research Center.

全面两孩政策背景下中国妇女生育意愿及其影响因素

庄亚儿1,姜玉2,李伯华3   

  1. 庄亚儿1,中国人口与发展研究中心、中国人民大学北京社会建设研究院;姜玉2(通讯作者),中国人口与发展研究中心;李伯华3,中国人口与发展研究中心。
  • 作者简介:庄亚儿,中国人口与发展研究中心、中国人民大学北京社会建设研究院研究员;姜玉(通讯作者),中国人口与发展研究中心副研究员;李伯华,中国人口与发展研究中心研究员。
  • 基金资助:
    本文为国家社会科学基金一般项目“全面两孩政策下家庭儿童养育成本对生育意愿和行为的影响研究”(17BRK025)的阶段性成果。

Abstract: Based on the data from 2017 national fertility survey, this paper analyzes patterns and determinants of fertility intention in China under the universal two-child policy. The survey suggests that womens average ideal number of children is 1.96 and the average number of intended children is 1.76. For women born in the 1990s and beyond, the number of children they intend to have is 1.70, while for women who have not yet had any children, their intended number of children is 1.60, both are lower than the current average, indicating that there is room for a further decline in the fertility in China. About 9.3 percent of women intend to have three or more children. Among women who have at least two children, the corresponding proportion of women whose first two are girls is 45.6 percent. The regional difference of the intended number of children is more apparent. Sex-selective abortion inhibits fertility intentions and reduces the number of birth, however, in the case of unsatisfactory sex composition of children and tendency to continue to have children, son preference plays a role in strengthening fertility intention and increasing the number of births.

Keywords: Fertility Intention, Idea Number of Children, Intended Number of Children, Son Preference

摘要: 利用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据,对妇女生育意愿状况及其影响因素进行了分析和探讨。2017年,中国育龄妇女的平均理想子女数为1.96,平均打算生育子女数为1.76。1990年代及以后出生的妇女平均打算生育子女数为1.70。现有1孩、尚未生育妇女的平均打算生育子女数分别为1.29、1.60,预示我国妇女的生育率存在着进一步下降的空间。打算生育3个孩子及以上的妇女比例为9.3%,前2个均为女孩的该比例为45.6%。31个地区平均理想子女数的方差为0.03,平均打算生育子女数的方差为0.07,打算生育子女数的地区差异更加明显。性别选择性人工流产抑制了生育意愿并减少了生育数量,但在未能达到满意的子女性别构成而倾向继续生育的情况下,男孩偏好起到了增强生育意愿和增加生育数量的作用。

关键词: 生育意愿, 理想子女数, 打算生育子女数, 男孩偏好