Abstract: This paper projects the average household size in China, and decomposes the total residential consumption into the factors of population size, household size, and consumption levels. The study finds that the average household size fluctuates around 2.5 persons per household. The proportion of households with 1 person and 2 persons will rise, 3-person and 4-person households will account for the largest proportion, while the proportion of 5-7-person households will decrease. The growth of 1-person and 2-person households is the major driving force of the growth of residential consumption. The influence of changes in household size on residential consumption exceeds that of consumption level. The changes in demographic and household factors have its own inertia, which has a rigid effect on the consumption growth. Under the trend scenario, the contribution of demographic factors to consumption will decrease while that of household factors will increase. Because changes in household size have a profound impact on society, economy, and the environment, policymaking should take into account the potential impact of changes in household size.

Keywords: Proportion of Different Household Sizes, Average Household Size, Residential Consumption, Decomposition of Factors

摘要： 对中国的平均家庭户规模和家庭户规模结构的变动趋势进行预测，并将预测结果用于居民消费变动的因素分解。研究发现，平均家庭户规模在2.5人/户左右波动，形成了以1、2人户占比上升，3、4人户为主，5～7人及以上户占比下降的家庭户规模结构变化特征；1人户和2人户占比的上升是居民消费增长的主要家庭因素，家庭户规模结构变动对消费的影响强度超过了消费水平；人口因素和家庭因素的变化有其自身的惯性，对于居民消费的增长具有刚性作用，在趋势情景下，人口因素的消费拉动作用下降、家庭因素的消费促进作用上升。家庭户规模结构变化对社会、经济和环境产生深刻影响，政策制定应该充分考虑家庭户规模结构变化的潜在影响。

关键词: 家庭户规模结构, 平均家庭户规模, 居民消费, 因素分解