Abstract: The effect of population size advantage on economic growth has gradually weakened in China, while human capital dividend starts to be a new engine for China's economic growth. This paper discusses human capital dividend and its spatial effects on China's economic growth. The results show that human capital contributes more to regional economic growth than population size. One city's health human capital has a significant “competitive effect” on its neighbors' economic growth, while educational human capital shows a “spillover effect”. Both types of human capital show spatial heterogeneity. Moreover, with a longer distance between two cities, the competitive effect and the spillover effect is stronger for the health and educational human capital, respectively. However, their marginal effects diminish, supporting the hypothesis of “distance attenuation”. This paper proposes that, by improving national educational capital and health capital, we can achieve a shift in economic growth from a reliance on the population size to human capital dividend. We should implement different spatial investment strategies for educational capital and health capital.

Keywords: Population Size Dividend, Human Capital Dividend, Dynamic Transition, Spatial Distance, Spatial Effects

摘要： 人口数量优势对中国经济增长作用减弱，挖掘人力资本红利能为经济增长提供持久动力。探讨人力资本对中国经济增长效应及空间作用机制，研究发现，人力资本对本地区经济增长作用高于人口数量，中国实现人口数量红利向人力资本红利的动力转换。进一步研究发现，健康资本对周边地区经济增长呈显著竞争效应，教育资本呈显著溢出效应，两类红利表现出空间异质性；伴随城市间间隔距离增加，健康资本竞争效应和教育资本溢出效应呈递增空间变动规律，不过两类人力资本空间效应边际增长随间隔距离增大而递减，满足“距离衰减”假设。因此提出，通过提高教育资本和健康资本实现经济增长从依靠劳动力数量向劳动力质量演进，并对教育资本和健康资本施行不同空间投资策略。

关键词: 人口数量红利, 人力资本红利, 动力转换, 间隔距离, 空间效应