Abstract: In the context of the universal two-child policy, this paper investigates the impact of grandparent care and formal childcare on fertility desire of secondchild based on the national fertility survey conducted in 2017. Using binary logistic regression and propensity score matching methods, we find that both of the two childcare modes have significant effects on the fertility desire of secondchild but their influencing directions are opposite: the grandparent care significantly increases the propensity to have the second child, while the formal childcare has a negative impact. Further study shows that the number of kindergartens per capita in prefecturelevel cities plays a positive moderating effect, weakening the role of formal childcare in reducing the fertility desire, while the average childcare costs in prefecturelevel cities play a negative moderating effect, strengthening the negative effect of formal childcare on fertility desire of the second child. Therefore, this paper suggests that increasing the supply of affordable public childcare services is the most effective policy to increase the fertility desire to have a second child.

Keywords: Grandparent Care, Formal Childcare, Child Care, Fertility Desire of Second Child

摘要： 在全面二孩政策的背景下，利用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据，采用回归分析、倾向得分匹配等计量方法，探讨祖辈照料、正式照料两类儿童照料安排对中国女性生育意愿的影响。研究发现，两类儿童照料方式均对生育意愿产生显著影响但发生作用的方向不同：祖辈照料可以显著提升女性的二孩生育意愿，而正式照料则对生育意愿产生显著的抑制作用；进一步研究发现，地级市人均幼儿园数量发挥了正向调节作用，削弱了正式照料对女性生育意愿的抑制效应，而地级市平均托育费用则发挥了负向调节作用，增强了正式照料对女性生育意愿的抑制作用。基于此，认为加大托育服务供给，降低托育服务费用，为育龄女性提供普惠可及的婴幼儿照料支持是提升二孩生育意愿的有效政策。

关键词: 祖辈照料, 正式照料, 儿童照料, 二孩生育意愿