Abstract: Population agglomeration is the foundation of urbanization. However, lots of migrants in China returned to their hometowns. Housing prices and house ownerships are two crucial factors in determining whether floating population would return. Although a vast body of literatures have analyzed various factors in return migration as well as the effect of housing prices on migration and settlement intention, few studies have focused on return behaviors. Employing China Household Finance Survey, we examine the effect of housing prices and house ownerships on the return behavior of floating population. Results from IVProbit model show that (1) the increase in housing prices crowds out floating population to return; (2) owning houses in their host cities reduces the chance of return for the homeowners and weakens the crowdingout effect of high housing prices; (3) the effects of housing prices and house ownerships on return decision are varying among the locations and the scales of the host city. Our findings have important policy implications for advancing urbanization strategies.

摘要： 城市住房是影响流动人口回流的重要因素。如何降低高房价对流动人口的挤出效应，是推进以人为核心的新型城镇化战略中不可忽视的关键问题。基于2017年中国家庭金融调查数据，研究住房价格和自有住房对流动人口回流行为的影响。研究发现，流入地的高房价促进流动人口回流，而在流入地拥有自有住房则降低了流动人口回流的概率，并且在流入地拥有自有住房减弱了高房价对回流的促进作用。分地区看，高房价的挤出效应仅在中西部地区显现，在东部地区没有得到证据支持；分城市规模看，随着城市规模扩大，住房价格的挤出效应先增强后减弱。这些结论为完善住房市场体系、深入推进以人为核心的新型城镇化战略提供依据。

关键词: 流动人口, 回流, 房价, 自有住房