Abstract: Based on fourwave data of the CLHLS from 2008 to 2018, this paper uses interpolation Markov chain to calculate the risk transition probability among different health states, life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HLE) of the older adults who were 6599 years old by marital status. The disabilityhealth transition probability, LE and HLE were lower for older adults without a spouse than those with a spouse, while the proportion of HLE in remaining LE was higher for older adults without spouse. The LE and HLE of older women were longer than older men, but womens proportion of HLE in the remaining LE was lower. The disability rate of older adults increased from 2016 to 2030, and will reach a “stable” level around 2026. Women and older adults without spouses will have a high risk of disability in the future. These findings suggest that having a spouse is a protective factor for older adults health.

摘要： 基于2008~2018年4期中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查数据，以“有配偶”和“无配偶”作为两种基本婚姻状况，利用插值马尔科夫链方法，测算65~99岁老年人口不同健康状态间的转移概率、平均预期寿命、健康预期寿命及其占余寿比重，并预测其2016~2030年的失能率。结果显示，无配偶老年人口失能-健康转移概率、平均预期寿命和健康预期寿命均低于有配偶者，但健康预期寿命占余寿比重较高；女性老年人口平均预期寿命和健康预期寿命较长，但健康预期寿命占余寿比重较低，队列失能率较高；2016~2030年中国老年人口失能率呈上升态势，在2026年前后将达到稳定状态；无配偶、高龄和女性老年人口是未来失能的高危人群。可见，婚姻状况会对老年人口的健康预期寿命产生重要影响，有配偶对老年人口健康维持具有保护作用。

关键词: 老年人口, 健康预期寿命, 婚姻状况