Abstract: China has a strong intergenerational parenting culture, but there is no consensus on whether delaying retirement will inhibit fertility by crowding out intergenerational parenting time. By constructing an intertemporal iterative model of endogenous fertility, intergenerational parenting and pension burden related to delayed retirement are introduced to analyze and simulate the sequential game process of retirement age and fertility under the goal of maximizing individual utility. Under the pay-asyou-go system, retirement age and fertility have an inverted U-shaped relationship; under the fund accumulation system, there is a monotonically increasing relationship. Fertility supporting measures can delay the inflection point of the retirement age, thereby expanding the space for the parallel alignment of the two policy goals of delaying retirement and encouraging fertility, and increasing fertility when the peak is reached, but will not change the relationship between the two. Thus, it is the appropriate time now to introduce a delayed retirement policy, which not only has less negative impact on fertility, but also improves individual utility, but should adopt a gradual postponement approach and pay careful attention to its possible negative effects.

摘要： 中国有较强的隔代抚养文化,有关延迟退休是否会因挤出隔代抚养时间而抑制生育数量的讨论尚未取得共识。 通过构建内生生育数量跨期迭代模型,引入与延迟退休相关的隔代抚养和养老负担两个维度,分析和模拟个体效用最大化目标下退休年龄和生育数量的序贯博弈过程。 研究发现,现收现付制下,退休年龄和生育数量呈倒 U 形关系;基金积累制下,两者呈单调递增关系。 生育配套支持措施能够扩展延迟退休和鼓励生育两项政策目标并行一致的空间并提高个体效用最大时的生育数量,但不会改变两者的曲线关系。 鉴于此,当前是出台延迟退休政策的较佳时期,不仅对生育数量产生的负面冲击较小,而且能提高个体效用,但应采取渐进式延迟退休方式,并谨慎关注其可能产生的负面影响。

关键词: 退休年龄, 生育数量, 隔代抚养, 内生生育模型