Abstract: Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and the 2018 national input-output table, using the propensity score matching, difference-in-differences model, and simultaneous-equation model, this paper analyzes the impact of individual income tax reduction and family indirect tax burden on family childbearing decision from the perspective of overall family tax burden. The families which are affected by the individual income tax reform, have an increased probability of having two children by 19.4% in comparison to the unaffected families. The higher the amount of income tax reduction, the stronger the fertility promotion effect of the tax reform. In addition, the high child order is more sensitive to the tax reduction than the lower one. The family indirect tax burden has negative effect on fertility decisions. The indirect tax rate on life necessities should be reduced to enhance the ability of low-income families to bear children. During the process of tax reform, the government should pay attention to the impact of tax system adjustment on family childbearing decision.

Keywords: Individual Income Tax Reform, Family Indirect Tax Burden, Family Childbearing Decision, Tax System Reform

摘要： 利用中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）和《2018年全国投入产出表》数据，采用倾向值得分匹配、双重差分法、联立方程模型，从全面的家庭税负角度出发，对个人所得税减免、家庭间接税负对家庭生育决策的影响进行分析。研究发现，受到个人所得税改革冲击的家庭生育二孩的概率比未受冲击的家庭高19.4%，个税改革对家庭生育具有正向激励作用；家庭个税减免额度越高，个税改革的生育促进效应越强，并且高孩次相对于低孩次对个税减免更敏感；家庭间接税负对家庭生育行为有一定的抑制作用，生活必需品间接税率应进一步降低以增强低收入家庭的孩子生养能力。研究表明，推动税收政策改革是促进生育政策和相关经济社会政策配套衔接的重要环节，在税改过程中应充分重视税收制度调整对家庭生育决策的影响。

关键词: 个人所得税改革, 家庭间接税负, 家庭生育决策, 税收制度改革