Abstract: This study presents a typology of older adults based on production and consumption dynamics, utilizing data from the 2018 China Longitudinal Ageing Social Survey （CLASS2018）. The latent class model and the multi-nominal logit regression model were employed to identify four types of older adults: those with low demands and productivity, those with high demands, those with high productivity, and those with high demands and productivity. Results indicated that over half of older adults contributed to their families or society, while only about one-fifth demanded informal or formal care. The probability of being an older adult with high productivity declined for those aged over 66, while that of being an older adult with high demands increased for those aged over 69. The productive and consuming behaviors of older people were correlated to the natural environments, institutional arrangements, and social contexts. This study provides evidence for the reform of the retirement age policies and the construction of a social service system giving equal weight to aged care and social participation.

Keywords: Production and Consumption Dynamics, Latent Class Model, New Typology of Older Adults

摘要： 站在“生产-消费”复合属性视角下对中国老年人口的特征进行“盘点”，采用潜类别模型和多分类Logit回归模型对2018年中国老年社会追踪调查（CLASS2018）数据进行分析。研究发现，“生产-消费”视角下中国老年人口分为健康撤离型、需求突出型、生产贡献型和贡-需交换型，空间分布存在显著的城乡和区域差异。2018年，超过一半的老年人口在为家庭或社会贡献生产性价值，约有1/5的老年人口需要家庭或社会服务，中国正处于老年人口红利窗口期；66岁是老年人口生产贡献性由盛转衰的转折点，69岁之后对于社会服务的需求开始普遍；老年人口“生产-消费”行为与地理环境、制度环境以及社会环境密切相关。研究结果可以为退休年龄改革和构建“养为并重”的社会服务体系提供理论和数据支撑。

关键词: “生产-消费”属性, 潜类别模型, 老年人口复合分类