Abstract: Using data from the 7th National Census of China and the United Nations' “World Population Prospects 2022”, this study analyzes the trend of China's population ageing. The findings reveal that the Chinese population is ageing rapidly. The ageing process will accelerate in the future, moving towards moderate and severe ageing. Consequently, the burden of old-age care will continuously increase. Meanwhile, the health and educational levels of the older population will also improve. In the context of continuous improvement of population quality, we take health status and educational levels into account when estimating the old-age dependency ratio. By replacing the population count with the total human resources, the revised old-age dependency ratio is lower than the traditional one, and its rate of increase is slower. This implies that the burden of old-age care for the working-age population in the future may not grow as rapidly as previously expected. With socioeconomic development and medical and health conditions improvements, population ageing needs to be measured with more comprehensive and appropriate indicators. This will help clarify the process of population ageing in China and actively respond to population ageing.

Keywords: Older People, Ageing Population, Old-age Dependency Ratio, Human Capital

摘要： 使用第七次全国人口普查数据和联合国《世界人口展望2022》数据，对中国人口老龄化趋势进行分析。中国正处于人口老龄化的快速发展阶段，且人口老龄化进程在未来将加速推进，走向老龄社会和超老龄社会，养老负担也将随之不断加重。同时，老年人口的健康水平和受教育水平都将不断提高。在人口质量持续提升的背景下，将健康状况和受教育程度与年龄指标相结合、以人力资源总量替代人口数量估算的老年抚养比低于传统计算方式下的老年抚养比，且其提升速度也相对较慢，这意味着未来劳动年龄人口的养老负担可能不会如以往预期的那样加速增大。随着社会经济的发展和医疗卫生条件的进步，人口老龄化需要用更加全面和适当的指标来衡量，以明晰中国的人口老龄化进程，积极应对人口老龄化。

关键词: 老年人口, 人口老龄化, 老年抚养比, 人力资源