Abstract: Based on the mortality data of the Chinese population and the cross-sectional health data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, this paper uses the Bayesian extension method of Sullivan's method to study life expectancy, impairment-free life expectancy, and their changes over time among people aged 50 and over with different education levels. The results show that the higher the education level, the longer the life expectancy and the longer the impairment-free life expectancy. The higher the education level, the higher the proportion of impairment-free life expectancy in life expectancy. At the same level of education, women live longer than men, but they have shorter impairment-free life expectancy and longer impairment survival than men of the same age; Higher levels of education have a greater effect on physical function in younger age groups and in men; From 2013 to 2018, the growth rate of life expectancy for people aged 50 years and above exceeded that of impairment-free life expectancy, and there was a phenomenon of impairment expansion. Improving the education level of the population can effectively slow down the expansion rate of physical dysfunction.

Keywords: Sullivan's Method, Bayesian Extension, Life Expectancy, Impairment-free Life Expectancy, Impairment Expansion

摘要： 基于中国人口死亡率数据和中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）截面数据，利用沙利文法的贝叶斯拓展研究中国50岁及以上不同受教育水平人群的预期寿命、无残损预期寿命、残损生存期及其变动趋势。研究结果表明：受教育水平越高人群的预期寿命和无残损预期寿命越长；受教育水平越高人群的无残损预期寿命在预期寿命中的占比越高；在相同的受教育水平下，女性比男性活得更长，但女性的无残损预期寿命比男性更短、残损生存期更长；受教育水平的提高对低龄和男性人口身体功能的改善有更大的帮助；从时间趋势看，2013~2018年，中国50岁及以上人群的预期寿命增速超过无残损预期寿命增速，存在残损扩张现象。提高人群的受教育水平能有效减缓身体功能障碍的扩张速度。

关键词: 沙利文法, 贝叶斯拓展, 预期寿命, 无残损预期寿命, 残损扩张