Abstract: Based on the panel data of China's prefecture-level cities in 2000, 2010, and 2020, this paper examines the spatial effects of population ageing on technological innovation and explores the heterogeneous impacts of ageing on technological innovation at different stages of social and economic development. The analytical results of the spatial Durbin model exhibit a robust inverted U-shaped relationship between population ageing and local technological innovation, as well as a U-shaped relationship between population ageing and neighbors' innovation. Furthermore, the threshold regression models indicate that, at the stage of low urbanization rate and insufficient supply of health services, population ageing imposes a significantly negative impact on technological innovation. With higher urbanization and a more adequate supply of health services, population ageing would stimulate innovation. Therefore, against the backdrop of the irreversible ageing process, promoting the urbanization process and improving the health care system will effectively attenuate the discouraging effects of ageing on innovation.

Keywords: Population Ageing, Technological Innovation, Spatial Effects, Threshold Regression

摘要： 基于2000年、2010年和2020年中国地级市面板数据，引入空间视角考察人口老龄化对科技创新的空间效应，并探索在不同社会经济发展阶段人口老龄化对科技创新的异质性影响。空间杜宾模型的分析结果表明，人口老龄化不仅与本地科技创新之间存在稳健的“先扬后抑”的倒U型关系，而且与邻地科技创新之间存在稳健的U型关系，即某城市人口老龄化对邻近城市的科技创新具有“先抑后扬”的空间溢出效应。门槛回归模型的结果显示，在城镇化率偏低、医疗服务供给不足的阶段，人口老龄化对本地科技创新具有显著的负面影响；城镇化水平的提升和医疗服务供给的增加将有效激活人口老龄化对科技创新的促进作用。面对短期不可逆转的人口老龄化进程，推进城镇化进程、完善医疗服务体系是破解人口老龄化掣肘科技创新难题的有效之举。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 科技创新, 空间效应, 门槛模型