Abstract: Data from 2020 Population Census show an acceleration in the trend of delaying first marriages in China since 2010. The mean age at first marriage for women rose from 23.28 years in 2000 to 24.00 years in 2010 and to 27.95 years in 2020. Given that the population-weighted method is influenced by age structure, alternative methods, including rate-weighted method, the singulate mean age at marriage and net nuptiality table, are used to calculate and compare the mean age at first marriage for Chinese women. All indicators reflect the similar trend of delaying first marriage among Chinese women, with a noticeable acceleration in recent years. However, when age structure effects are removed, the increase in the mean age at first marriage for Chinese women shows a more moderate upward trend, with a delay of 2.92 to 3.78 years between 2000 and 2020, which is less than the result calculated by the population-weighted method. Across the different indicators, an initial widening and then narrowing trend in the urban-rural gap in first marriage delay is observed. After controlling for age structure, the extent of delay in first marriage is lower for all urban, town and rural women, with the difference being smaller in urban and larger in towns and rural areas.

Keywords: Mean Age at First Marriage, Marriage Delay, Age Structure

摘要： 第七次全国人口普查数据显示，2010年以来中国初婚年龄呈现加速推迟趋势。女性平均初婚年龄由2000年的23.28岁上升到2010年的24.00岁和2020年的27.95岁，后10年增量是前10年增量的5倍多。考虑到用人数加权法计算的平均初婚年龄受到人口年龄结构影响，结合用率加权法计算的平均初婚年龄、初婚时平均单身年数和0岁未婚预期寿命，综合探讨中国女性初婚推迟水平及其变化趋势。各指标均反映出女性平均初婚年龄正加速推迟且呈现出不可逆转的迹象。在排除人口年龄结构的影响后，女性平均初婚年龄增长走势更加平缓，2000~2020年的推迟幅度在2.92~3.78岁之间，低于人数加权法计算的推迟幅度。分城镇乡来看，各指标均显示出城市、镇和乡村女性的平均初婚年龄差距呈先增大后缩小的趋势。在排除人口年龄结构的影响后，城市、镇和乡村女性的初婚推迟程度均有所下降，且下降幅度在城市较小，在镇和乡村更大。

关键词: 平均初婚年龄, 初婚推迟, 人口年龄结构